Economics

Center on Wealth & Poverty

Photo by Lenny Kuhne

Will Robots Really Create an Employment “Death Spiral”?

According to a new International Monetary Fund research paper, the answer to the above question is yes. As one story on the IMF report put it, “The future of work run by robots appears to be a dystopian march to rising inequality, falling wages and higher unemployment.” This is just the latest in a long line of predictions that artificial intelligence and automation will soon create massive “technological unemployment.”

I get it. Doomsday predictions gain shares on Facebook and Twitter. But these apocalyptic fears defy the lessons of both history and economics.

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Fed Up in Seattle

Don’t believe the hype that “Amazon killed the Seattle head tax,” the new levy that the city recently passed on businesses to fund an affordable-housing initiative. The truth behind the city council’s stunning reversal—repealing the tax by a 7-2 vote, just four weeks after passing it 9-0—is that Seattle citizens have erupted in frustration against the city’s tax-and-spend political class that has failed to address the homelessness crisis, despite record new revenues. As recently as a few years ago, it seemed as if Seattle voters largely viewed our hyper-progressive city council as a harmless oddity in an otherwise tolerant, thriving, liberal city. But times have changed. Now, according to recent public polling, 83 percent of Seattle voters are dissatisfied with how …

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View from Space Needle
Photo by Wynand van Poortvliet via Unsplash

Make the Seattle City Council Great Again

There seem to be cycles in city politics. Fifty years ago a small band of Young Republicans and Young Democrats came together in an unusual alliance to overturn the existing Seattle City Council. They called themselves CHECC: Choose an Effective City Council. It took a couple of elections, but they prevailed and it was then — in the 1970s — that formerly …

The Big Picture Behind Memorial Day

Memorial Day had its origin as Decoration Day following the Civil War, but it only became an official federal holiday to honor those who lost their lives while serving in the U.S. armed forces in 1971.

Memorial Day had its origin as Decoration Day following the Civil War, but it only became an official federal holiday to honor those who lost their lives while serving in the U.S. armed forces in 1971.

Memorial Day is also an occasion to associate those who died in the just causes for which the United States was willing to go to war. World War I, World War II, Korea and Vietnam were conflicts where freedom was clearly at stake. The post September 11 engagements in Afghanistan, Iraq and Syria remain a bit more complicated, being associated with responses to abuse of power in divided countries and to transnational radical Islamist terrorism.

October 2018 marks the commemoration of 25 years since U.S. forces suffered defeat in Somalia. But we still commemorate the courageous Army Rangers and Delta Force members who fought and died in the chaotic streets of Mogadishu so that their fellow soldiers could survive against overwhelming odds, depicted in the popular film “Black Hawk Down.”

Some U.S. military engagements were ill-advised and injustices were committed along the way. History shows that the injustices were probably greater in actions taken by Washington politicians and bureaucrats than by the military in the field. For instance, the government’s willingness to authorize and deploy military force — putting American lives in harm’s way without clear and realistic objectives and plans for victory — was the great injustice of the Vietnam War. In other cases, such as in Iraq, President Obama’s political decision to withdraw U.S. military forces by the end of 2011 directly led to the injustice of reversal of hard-fought gains made by the military in the prior eight years, and resulted in a power vacuum filled by the rise of ISIS and growing Iranian influence.

While remembering those who died in defending U.S. interests in conflicts large and small is a central purpose of this holiday, Memorial Day takes on its deepest meaning when we connect it with our roots. Americans were unique in sacrificing their treasure and giving their lives to found the first country in history establishing that all people have natural rights that come from God rather than from rulers or government. The Declaration of Independence affirmed the equality of all people and that they were endowed with unalienable rights to life, liberty and the pursuit of happiness. Thus, when Americans sacrificed their lives in military service, it was not just to defend the United States, but it was also to uphold the natural rights and spiritual values associated with the nation’s founding — and which remain exemplary and true for all time and people.

There were times and places in human history when there were nation-states of cultural achievement, virtue and efflorescence, such as in Periclean Athens, in the Florence of the Medicis, and in England of Queen Elizabeth and Shakespeare. But none were founded the way America was — that is, by a collection of human genius who prayerfully approached drafting a constitution that would mitigate corruption and abuse of power while also protecting the citizens’ unalienable, God-given rights and enabling them to rise to levels closer to the divine image in which all were created than they would have under any government previously conceived. Yet another significant part of celebrating Memorial Day is associated with the example set by Americans in how they treated their vanquished foes.

The respect that Gen. Douglas MacArthur and the occupying American forces displayed after Japan’s surrender amazed the people, who assumed the victorious Americans would execute their beloved emperor and plunder, and treat them in ways similar to what Japanese soldiers did to those they had conquered in East and Southeast Asia. The courtesy, helpfulness and respect shown by the Americans won the Japanese people’s trust and acceptance of the occupation’s policies that forced fundamental change on the country — rewriting their constitution and laws, and reorganizing the ownership of land and business to provide more fairness and opportunity.

In Europe after armistice, the war-indebted United States launched the Marshall Plan that gave some $125 billion (in current dollar value) in economic support to help reconstruct war-devastated regions in Western Europe. Major initiatives included rebuilding industry — even giving the Europeans a leg up with the building of state-of-the-art factories and facilities that were in many cases more efficient than what then existed in the U.S.

In sum, Memorial Day means more than remembering those who died in military service to the country. It means connecting with a heritage that began with a courageous and faithful group of Founders, who risked their lives for the birth of freedom and the establishment of America as a “shining city on a hill.” It also means remembering what made “the greatest generation,” who — after forfeiting so many lives to assure victory for the Allied nations in World War II — then sacrificed more to rebuild and preserve the independence of its former enemies.

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POTUS
President Donald J. Trump waves to the crowd while exiting Air Force 1 at St. Louis Lambert International Airport Nov. 29, 2017. President Donald J. Trump exits Air Force One in St. Charles, MO.
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U.S. Air Force photo by Airman Chad Gorecki

For President Trump, Better To Focus On Results Than On Appearance

Preoccupation with form over substance combined with denial and avoidance behavior are the chief causes of human failure — from the individual and family right up to the national level. World War II became inevitable because of denial by the British, French and Americans that Hitler meant what he said in “Mein Kampf” and was rearming to carry it out.  Read More ›

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Block Chain Future and the FCC Local Media Rule-Making

The Bill Walton Show: Episode 15 — Bill gets a briefing from George Gilder, who predicted the smart phone and a whole lot more… back in the 1980’s. Hance Haney also joins the conversation to discuss his work lobbying the FCC. Transcript I’m here today with George Gilder, my friend, and founder of Discovery Institute. George is the author of Read More ›

Dear Washington State: Don’t Follow California’s Tax Model

I’m one of more than 125,000 people who have moved from California to Washington State in the past three years. Like many of these people, I came to Washington State for its dynamic economy, lower taxes, cheaper cost of living, and the chance to make a better life for my family. I was born and raised in California, but over the past decade started to feel trapped—I saw half of my paycheck disappear in taxes, couldn’t afford a decent house, and worried that I would never make my way up the economic ladder. Read More ›
Photo by The New York Public Library

The Time Is Right for Tax Fairness and Sensible Spending Priorities in Seattle

Local residents are getting their first taste of property-tax hikes courtesy of Olympia this month and, in many cases, it’s shocking. According to The Seattle Times, a spokesman for the county assessor noted the 2018 boost is “the largest property-tax increase in King County in modern history.” In at least one community — Carnation — homeowners of a median-assessed-value property might see an astonishing 30 percent increase.

While middle-class Washingtonians are paying more taxes than ever, some politicians are laying the blame on the state’s “regressive” tax system. But, as is often the case, proponents of higher taxes cloak a more complete picture of state taxes and spending prioritization with emotional arguments about “inequality and fairness.” Recently, King County Executive Dow Constantine and King County Assessor John Wilson joined the debate, pressing the case in a Seattle Times Op-Ed for tax reform, even calling a proposal for a new capital-gains tax as one of “several innovative ideas.”

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A Pox on SOX, It’s Bad for Stocks

With corporate tax reform in the rearview mirror, Congress and the Trump administration should pare back a misguided regulatory regime that imposes unnecessary costs on public companies, discourages initial public offerings, and skews the distribution of wealth toward the very rich. The problem traces back to the bursting of the dot-com bubble in the spring of 2000. Read More ›