Gale Pooley

Senior Fellow, Center on Wealth & Poverty

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The Fastest Learning Curve in History

Human genome sequencing has become over a million times more abundant since 2003. Now the price may drop another 90 percent from $1,000 to $100.
In 1990 a goal was set to map the entire three-billion-letter human genome. The U.S. government spent $3.8 billion to fund the project in general with a fraction going towards the human genome sequencing.

Population Growth and Resource Abundance

Contrary to popular belief, personal resource abundance has increased four times faster than population growth in the last 40 years.
Are resources becoming more or less abundant? To answer this question we analyzed the change in the time prices of 50 basic commodities from 1980 to 2020. Recall that 1980 was the year Julian Simon and Paul Ehrlich entered into their famous 10-year $1,000 bet on the price of five metals.

Breakfast Bounty

When you enjoy breakfast tomorrow morning, take a moment to thank all those who have worked to make all of our breakfasts so bounteous.

Bacon Innovation

Without human innovation, instead of $3.68 a pound, bacon would cost $39.66. or 978 percent more. The next time you have bacon for breakfast, take a moment to smell the innovation.

Are We Running Out? No

From 1980 to 2020, every one percent increase in population corresponded to a four percent increase in personal resource abundance and an eight percent increase in global resource abundance.

Space Rides in 2041: $4.53

If space tourism can innovate as fast as computer technology, we all get to ride. Every flight yields new knowledge. Learning curves reduce costs 20 to 30 percent for each doubling of output.

Bicycles on Sale: 95.4% Off

In 1910 it took 66.4 hours to earn the money to buy a bicycle. Today it takes only three. The time price has fallen by 95.4 percent. You get 22 bicycles today for the time price of one in 1910.

Life Has Gotten Sweeter – Literally!

Trade benefits humanity in a myriad of ways. It allows us to discover the true value of goods and services. It promotes cooperation by building trust between contracting parties. And, most obviously, it enables us to buy goods and services that we would not be able to produce ourselves.

Revisiting the Simon-Ehrlich Wager 40 Years On

And so, as you listen to the purveyors of doom on the television and the radio, and read apocalyptic predictions of humanity’s future on Twitter and in the newspapers, bear in mind that with every hungry mouth comes a pair of hands and a brain capable of thought, planning, and innovation.

New Discovery Fellow Gale Pooley’s Simon Abundance Index Cited in Wired

Excerpt: Researchers Gale Pooley and Marian Tupy calculate the “Simon Abundance Index,” which takes into account both global population and the prices of 50 commodities important for human welfare — everything from sugar to salmon to iron ore to natural gas — expressed in terms of how long the average person in the world has to work to afford one unit of each. Every one of the 50 has become more affordable since 1980, even as global population has exploded, and most have become several times more affordable. The aggregate Abundance Index was set equal to 100 in 1980; by 2019 it had climbed to almost 620. Continue Reading