Nathan Lewis

Nathan Lewis is the author of four books on economic topics, including three about the gold standard. He has maintained a website on economic topics since 2005, at NewWorldEconomics.com. He has fifteen years of experience in the asset management industry, in research and portfolio management. Today, he is the editor of the Polaris Letter, an investment newsletter.

Archives

What Replaces Social Security?

_{Nathan Lewis
July 15, 2026}

The Social Security system might have been a good idea in 1936, when seniors faced the collapse of asset values in the Great Depression — including the devaluation of their bank savings in 1933 — while their adult children were also out of work and struggling to feed their own children. It might have been a good idea in 1950, when the ratio of payers to recipients was 16.5:1, and the tax rate had climbed to 3.0% combined. But it is definitely not a good idea in 2026, or for the foreseeable next fifty years.

The Only “Rules-Based” Monetary System That Has Ever Worked

_{Nathan Lewis
June 11, 2026}

Remember the Federal Reserve’s “2% Inflation Target”? It has been 63 consecutive months since that target has been met. In May, the official Consumer Price Index (which has been continually modified since the 1980s to make it look better) was 4.2% higher than a year earlier. But even if the Federal Reserve was able (har!) to meet this target, it smells suspiciously like a plan to gradually devalue the currency over time. This makes political sense — a cheaper currency benefits debtors, at least for as long as interest rates don’t reflect expectations of continual currency debasement. Since the government is the biggest debtor, and since a lot of voters are also big debtors, there is a kind of constant political wind toward cheapening the currency. This CPI …

Hank Paulson’s Emergency Plan

_{Nathan Lewis
May 19, 2026}

Hank Paulson, former CEO of Goldman Sachs, and US Treasury Secretary during the 2008 Financial Crisis, is a serious fellow. So, when Mr. Paulson shows up in Washington DC and tells people that the US Treasury needs an emergency "break the glass" plan if market demand for US Treasury bonds collapses, maybe you should take it seriously.

Inflation Without Money Creation

_{Nathan Lewis
April 9, 2026}

Most theories of "inflation" revolve around some kind of money creation. In the past, this was commonly done with a printing press; thus "money printing." Today, it's mostly digital. But, as we described in our 2022 book Inflation: What It Is, Why It's Bad, and How To Fix It (the updated paperback edition is the one you want), it is much better to understand "monetary inflation" as a decline in the value of a currency. This might be accompanied by an increase in the "money supply," or it might not.

Why Gas Prices Will Never Go Back Down

_{Nathan Lewis
March 9, 2026}

Last month, I warned that gasoline prices could rise to perhaps $10 a gallon. I made comparisons to the Oil Crisis of 1973, especially the apparent decline in the dollar's value (as expressed by the number of dollars it took to buy an ounce of gold) that preceded the Oil Crisis that erupted in October of that year. But when I was outlining the eerie similarities between 1973 and today (including a Federal Reserve that did not seem to be doing anything inflationary), I didn't expect that we would actually have another Arab Oil Embargo.

Here Comes $10 Gasoline

_{Nathan Lewis
February 7, 2026}

When I look at how things are going, I keep coming to the conclusion that we might see $10 per gallon gasoline at your local pump pretty soon — maybe in 2027. It would cost $200 for a 20-gallon fillup. It might not happen, but if it did, it wouldn't surprise me a bit. Basically, it would feel like a replay of the Oil Crisis of 1973.

How to Save Iran 1-2-3

_{Nathan Lewis
January 16, 2026}

Iran has been experiencing quite a bit of disorder recently. The reasons for this are "complicated" — Iran has many foreign enemies, and the situation smells like an attempted "color revolution" — but the government of Iran has also been making quite a mess of things all by itself, recently and for a long time now. It's no surprise that even the most patriotic Iranians might be very dissatisfied today.

The BRICS’ New Unit Currency is a Good Step Forward

_{Nathan Lewis
December 13, 2025}

In 2019, I was involved in a crypto project that aimed to provide a usable basis of large-scale commerce in an environment where existing fiat currencies were failing badly. Of course, I was in support of a 100% gold system — which has always worked in the past. And, people agreed that this was a good idea “theoretically,” and “eventually.” But, the perception at the time was that there should be some kind of intermediate step. For example, if a country had a regular gold-based currency today, then the value of the currency would be fixed to gold. In other words, foreign exchange rates with the other major fiat currencies would be terribly volatile, and also, would introduce a lot of trade and finance difficulties. Yes, you don’t want to follow those …

The BRICS Need Gold Bank Accounts

_{Nathan Lewis
November 8, 2025}

The BRICS — a consortium of eleven countries, with 22 more in application stages, led by China, Russia, India and Brazil — declared in October the building of a new “gold settlement architecture as a strategic safeguard against global financial volatility.” This is a fine goal, which can take many specific forms. The quickest and easiest way (although not necessarily the “best” way) to get this done is to introduce “gold checking accounts”…

The BRICS’s New Gold Settlement Architecture Is Being Built — But Won’t Be Needed

_{Nathan Lewis
October 28, 2025}

The "BRICS" is now a consortium of ten countries, with 22 more countries in application stages, led by Russia, China and India. Events since 2022 have lit a fire under the BRICS members to establish a new global financial and currency architecture that is wholly independent of the US dollar system, which has been the main focus since the Bretton Woods Agreement of 1944.

How Africa Can Get Rich

_{Nathan Lewis
October 1, 2025}

Africa too can get rich, as once-poor Asian countries have, but not if governments keep doing what they've been doing. Basically, they will have to throw off the stifling tax systems inherited from their prior colonial governments. There are other things you can add to that. But, I think we can say, with confidence, that if things stay as they are, nothing is possible.

How to Avoid Sovereign Default

_{Nathan Lewis
September 8, 2025}

Governments sometimes get themselves into trouble with too much debt. Early economist Adam Smith devoted the last chapter of his famous Wealth of Nations (1776) to the topic of sovereign default. “The progress of the enormous debts which at present oppress, and will in the long-run probably ruin, all the great nations of Europe, has been pretty uniform,” Smith wrote. “The practice of funding [financing deficits with debt] has gradually enfeebled every state which has adopted it.”

After Countries Go Broke

_{Nathan Lewis
July 10, 2025}

For a country like the United States, with debt denominated in a local currency, "going broke" normally means that continued deficit spending can't be financed by the bond market. Governments could, at this moment, reduce spending dramatically and basically balance their budgets. Of course this never happens.

Gold Stablecoins Coming Soon

_{Nathan Lewis
June 19, 2025}

The main advantage of a USD stablecoin is that it integrates seamlessly with the USD-based monetary economy of today. The main disadvantage is that its value is fixed to the dollar; and that value can be expected to decline over time, slowly or quickly. A better solution, and the one that the US used in 1913, is multiple private issuers of gold-based stablecoins.

Lawrence Lepard Predicts “The Big Print”

_{Nathan Lewis
June 3, 2025}

The 2020 period, in which central banks around the world engaged in unprecedented monetary expansion, showed their increasing willingness to essentially “run the printing presses” whenever things got tough. Unfortunately, along the way, they also showed Congress (and other governments worldwide) that no real discipline is needed, because every problem can ultimately be solved with the central bank printing press.

Tariffs Done Wrong

_{Nathan Lewis
April 24, 2025}

Economic Nationalism, done right, could work very well for the United States in coming decades. The most glorious period for US business, before 1913, was a time of high tariffs and controlled immigration. But, it was also a time when there was no Income Tax; and, in this pre-Federal Reserve era, the money was fixed to gold. The result was very good. The United States, at first a promising “emerging market,” ended up a global superpower.

Another Round of Inflation on Deck

_{Nathan Lewis
March 12, 2025}

When we wrote this in 2022, it took about $1800 to buy an ounce of gold. Today, it is more like $2900. That implies an $1800/$2900=0.621 or a 38% decline in dollar value over that period. Prices will eventually adjust, over a period of years, to the new, lower value of the currency, with some prices moving faster and some moving slower. “All things being equal” (they never are but it is a good principle), we should expect a $2900/$1800 or 61% rise in prices of goods and services going forward, compared even to the inflation-boosted prices that we have had to get used to in 2022-2024.

A New Era of Economic Nationalism

_{Nathan Lewis
February 17, 2025}

The United States was founded on Free Trade. And, high tariffs. Domestically, the United States had exceptional economic policy. There were hardly any taxes, and the currency was reliably fixed to gold. Trade was Free between States. With what I've called "The Magic Formula" (Low Taxes and Stable Money), the US got richer — even with high tariffs with the rest of the world.

Gold Is Still Your Only Monetary Alternative

_{Nathan Lewis
January 28, 2025}

Today, we are seeing a lot of the institutions and bad ideas of the Post World War II Consensus breaking down and collapsing. Among these is the rather stupid notion that economies should be managed by some combination of currency and interest rate manipulation, and “fiscal stimulus” spending that amounts to utter waste, for the simple reason that it has no justification except as “stimulus.” These are the conclusions of “Keynesianism,” which has been taught in all universities since the 1940s.

How to End the Fed

_{Nathan Lewis
November 18, 2024}

President Wilson enacted the Federal Reserve Act in 1913. This allowed a consortium of private bankers to establish what amounted to a central bank monopoly currency issuer in the United States — although they took great pains to deny that was the goal. The Federal Reserve was never part of the government. It was the fourth attempt by private bankers to establish a monopoly currency issuer in the United States.