
Gary N. Smith is the Fletcher Jones Professor of Economics at Pomona College. His research on financial markets statistical reasoning, and artificial intelligence, often involves stock market anomalies, statistical fallacies, and the misuse of data have been widely cited. He is the author of The AI Delusion (Oxford, 2018) and co-author (with Jay Cordes) of The Phantom Pattern (Oxford, 2020) and The 9 Pitfalls of Data Science (Oxford 2019). Pitfalls won the Association of American Publishers 2020 Prose Award for “Popular Science & Popular Mathematics”.
Archives


We Love Baseball Because of — Not Despite — Lady Luck
With a big game approaching, emotions run high so let’s heed some statistical realities
AI Would Run the World Better Than Humans, Google Research Claims
Don’t believe the headlines: Google’s inhouse game does not show that AI is ready to rule the world
Can AI Really Predict Crime a Week in Advance? That’s the Claim.
University of Chicago data scientists claim 90% accuracy for their algorithm using past data — but it’s hard to evaluate
AI: Is Thinking Humanly More Important Than Acting Rationally?
I have documented many examples of GPT-3 AI’s failure to distinguish meaningful from meaningless correlations — and invite readers to contribute their own
Some Economic Models are Alluring, Others are Useful
In some markets, prices are affected by market forces and in others, like the job market, they are not
Turing Tests Are Terribly Misleading
Black box algorithms are now being trusted to approve loans, price insurance, screen job applicants, trade stocks, determine prison sentences, and much more. Is that wise?
Will Higher Prices Disarm Russia? It’s Complicated…
The effects of hyperinflation are subtle, but very real
The AI Illusion – State-of-the-Art Chatbots Aren’t What They Seem
GPT-3 is very much like a performance by a good magician