Jeffrey Funk

Jeffrey Funk is the winner of the NTT DoCoMo Mobile Science Award and the author of five books. His forthcoming book, Unicorns, Hype and Bubbles: A Guide to Spotting, Avoiding and Exploiting Investment Bubbles In Tech, will be published by Harriman House this fall.

Archives

A Sloppy “AI Scientist” Could Make the Science Crisis Much Worse

_{A research team claims to have developed the AI Scientist that “generates novel research ideas, writes code, executes experiments ...” Really?}_{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
August 29, 2024}

It continues to astonish us how easily people can be persuaded that LLMs (chatbots) can do our thinking for us

AI Increased the Market Cap of the Magnificent Seven by $10 Trillion. Will it last?

_{AI is here to stay, just not in these insanely high share prices}_{Jeffrey Funk
August 22, 2024}

Are the benefits from generative AI really hundreds of times higher than those from Microsoft Office?

Are We Close to Peak AI Hype?

_{Outrageous statements are proliferating.}_{Jeffrey Funk
July 12, 2024}

Sanity might be about ready to return to the market. Just maybe, we have reached peak hype.

Musk and LeCun Have a Superficial Debate About Science

_{What would have been a better debate?}_{Jeffrey Funk
June 24, 2024}

Elon Musk tweeted the following: “Join xAI if you believe in our mission of understanding the universe, which requires maximally rigorous pursuit of the truth, without regard to popularity or political correctness.” Yann LeCun, chief scientist at tech giant Meta, could not resist responding. Musk claims to “want a maximally rigorous pursuit of the truth but spews crazy-ass conspiracy theories on his own social platform.” It escalated quickly, with Musk questioning what science LeCun had done in the past five years, and LeCun replying: “Over 80 technical papers published since January 2022. What about you?” LeCun then said: “If you do research and don’t publish, it’s not science”. So the most successful engineer over the last ten years criticizes academic …

Hype Distracts AI Engineers from Real Work

_{Who is going to solve AI's actual problems?}_{Jeffrey Funk
May 22, 2024}

One reason there wasn’t an emphasis on reducing hallucinations is because the problem is hard. Some argue that hallucinations are “baked into" AI chatbots.

Universities Should Prioritize Critical Thinking Over Large Language Models

_{It is doubtful that LLMs can generate novel ways to boost productivity}_{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
April 23, 2024}

No matter how many words they train on and no matter how many human trainers correct their mistakes, they will continue to lack the critical thinking skills.

AI’s Illusion of Rapid Progress

_{It always seems to be on the verge of perfection}_{Jeffrey Funk
April 22, 2024}

Too many people are extrapolating from the systems that are purportedly automated, even though they aren’t yet working properly.

The State of Innovation and the Impact of AI

_{Robert J. Marks and Jeffrey Funk
March 28, 2024}

In this episode, host Robert J. Marks discusses the state of innovation and the impact of AI with guest Jeffrey Funk, author of the book Technology Change and the Rise of New Industries. They discuss the hype around AI, the limitations of large language models like GPT-3, the slowing rate of innovation, the impact of Goodhart’s Law on academia, and the need for a shift in metrics and a focus on practical applications. They also touch on the role of universities and corporations in driving innovation and the need for cross-fertilization and collaboration. Overall, they express skepticism about the current state of AI and emphasize the importance of measuring success based on real-world impact rather than just publications and metrics. Additional Resources Technology …

Sundar Pichai Says AI Will Be as Big as Fire

_{The AI bubble is going to pop.}_{Jeffrey Funk
March 27, 2024}

Ask someone how big AI will be, and the answer is likely huge. But how big is huge? Why does this matter? Because big forecasts encourage big investments, trials, and purchases. After big consulting companies predicted eight years ago that AI would have economic gains of about $15 trillion by 2030, many countries and companies felt the need to pay for their own reports from those same consultants. Of course, those consultants said that those countries could experience rapid productivity gains and those companies could experience rising profits if they implemented AI in the right way, which was of course under the guidance of the consulting companies! Eight years later and few of their predictions have come true. But their optimistic predictions are back again, with big forecasts …

Sora: Life Is Not a Multiple-Choice Test

_{With Sora, as with other generative AI developments, some are quick to proclaim that artificial general intelligence has arrived. Not so fast.}_{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
March 6, 2024}

The hallucinations are symptomatic of generative AI models’ core problem: they can’t identify output problems because they know nothing about the real world.

Why Do Universities Ignore Good Ideas?

_{Funding agencies see if the researcher is tenured or has already received funding. It's a vicious cycle.}_{Jeffrey Funk
March 1, 2024}

Katalin Karikó’s Nobel Prize didn’t prove that universities don’t fund good ideas. It merely reminded us that they rarely do.

The Allure of General Purpose Technologies

_{Generative AI is merely the most recent one.}_{Jeffrey Funk
January 30, 2024}

I don’t believe that economists intended to create a monster when they coined the term “general purpose technology”, but they have.

Are Good Ideas Hard to Find?

_{This academic paper tells us a lot about why innovation has slowed}_{Jeffrey Funk
January 11, 2024}

Many do not think of these small ideas, most of them highly technical, that enabled the improvements in chips, crop yields and new drugs.

When it Comes to New Technologies Like AI, Tempers Run Hot

_{So far, the most tangible LLM successes have been in generating political disinformation and phishing scams.}_{Gary Smith and Jeffrey Funk
January 8, 2024}

LLMs often remind us of clueless students who answer essay questions by writing everything they think is relevant, hoping the right answer is in there somewhere

How Do We Define Successful Use Cases for Generative AI?

_{Current generative AI systems are designed to give us the most common solutions, instead of the new ones we need.}_{Jeffrey Funk
December 19, 2023}

Evidence that existing ideas aren’t so good can be seen in the big startup losses, slow diffusion of technology, and slow rate of productivity improvement.

Productivity Increase Will Take Time in the Age of AI

_{An acceleration in productivity growth from AI isn’t right around the corner, despite promises by economists.}_{Jeffrey Funk
November 14, 2023}

If we look at the papers presented at the conference, we can’t find evidence that AI is or will improve productivity.

Why Are We Obsessed With How Smart AI Is?

_{The people with the most specific knowledge should be assessing applications for AI and their risks.}_{Jeffrey Funk
October 12, 2023}

The biggest lesson from giving university exams to ChatGPT is that students should be tested in other ways.

When will the AI-driven Productivity Revolution Begin?

_{Big corporations are slow to embrace AI tech}_{Jeffrey Funk
September 15, 2023}

AI will be much harder to implement than previous information technologies.

The LK-99 BS Further Undermines the Credibility of Science

_{The rejection or distortion of genuine science can have tragic consequences}_{Gary Smith and Jeffrey Funk
August 10, 2023}

Science has enriched our lives enormously. Publicity stunts like this superconductor fiasco will not help.

Using Data Like a Drunk Uses a Lamppost

_{Startup companies can be tempted to use statistics for support instead of real illumination}_{Jeffrey Funk and Gary Smith
July 21, 2023}

Karl Pearson, the great English mathematician and statistician, wrote, “Statistics is the grammar of science.” But it can be used to mislead, too.