Philippines “Tiger Cub” Merits New Respect

The currency shocks across the Pacific have had the perverse result of reminding us that Southeast Asia is still the most promising economic region of the developing world. According to the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, American exports to the region could surpass trade with Japan in the next 20 years. Already, ASEAN’s 450 million people constitute the world’s fourth largest trading market (after the European Union, the U.S. and Japan). And within Southeast Asia, the most underestimated economy could be that of the Philippines.

The currency breakdowns probably will prevent several recognized economic “tigers” from achieving significant economic growth this year, but the Philippines is still likely to post a healthy 5 percent increase. “Sometimes,” says President Fidel Ramos, “it is better to be a tiger cub than an old tiger.” That means: We start out smaller, but have less distance to fall and are more resilient.

The message hidden in that remark is that the Philippines’ rise represents more than just an investment and marketing opportunity for the U.S., and especially the Northwest, right now.

It would not have seemed so only a few years ago. In the early ‘90s, with the U.S. economically wobbly, a century-long special defense relationship between the U.S. and its one-time protectorate appeared to be voting on its end. But, as the recent Seattle visit by President Ramos made clear, something is going to heat up — even in the midst of Asia’s currency turmoil. Seattle and Washington State, home to 60,000 people of Filipino descent, could figure to be a particular interest in the future wave of economic collaboration, following the trend in higher-education ties and the use of new technologies.

Culturally, quips Ramos, “It is said that we (Filipinos) are the way we are because we spent 300 years in a Spanish convent and 50 years in Hollywood.” But among the legacies of that strange colonial history is a population that is comfortable in English — the de facto international language — and are used to operating under laws and structures modeled on those of the United States. As the old pattern of American paternalism and Filipino dependency has disappeared, the image of the Philippines as an independent, but Westernized, partner can be discerned.

he currency shocks across the Pacific have had the perverse result of reminding us that Southeast Asia is still the most promising economic region of the developing world. According to the U.S.-ASEAN Business Council, American exports to the region could surpass trade with Japan in the next 20 years. Already, ASEAN’s 450 million people constitute the world’s fourth largest trading market (after the European Union, the U.S. and Japan). And within Southeast Asia, the most underestimated economy could be that of the Philippines.

The currency breakdowns probably will prevent several recognized economic “tigers” from achieving significant economic growth this year, but the Philippines is still likely to post a healthy 5 percent increase. “Sometimes,” says President Fidel Ramos, “it is better to be a tiger cub than an old tiger.” That means: We start out smaller, but have less distance to fall and are more resilient.

The message hidden in that remark is that the Philippines’ rise represents more than just an investment and marketing opportunity for the U.S., and especially the Northwest, right now.

It would not have seemed so only a few years ago. In the early ‘90s, with the U.S. economically wobbly, a century-long special defense relationship between the U.S. and its one-time protectorate appeared to be voting on its end. But, as the recent Seattle visit by President Ramos made clear, something is going to heat up — even in the midst of Asia’s currency turmoil. Seattle and Washington State, home to 60,000 people of Filipino descent, could figure to be a particular interest in the future wave of economic collaboration, following the trend in higher-education ties and the use of new technologies.

Culturally, quips Ramos, “It is said that we (Filipinos) are the way we are because we spent 300 years in a Spanish convent and 50 years in Hollywood.” But among the legacies of that strange colonial history is a population that is comfortable in English — the de facto international language — and are used to operating under laws and structures modeled on those of the United States. As the old pattern of American paternalism and Filipino dependency has disappeared, the image of the Philippines as an independent, but Westernized, partner can be discerned.

Ramos’ impressive six year administration ends next May, and many observers (and perhaps Ramos himself) worry that a new government could revert to political pandering, cronyism and corruption. More likely is that Ramos’ privatization of unwieldy state enterprises and the streamlining of government processes and structures will continue.

Such reforms as foreign exchange deregulation and ending of the telecommunications monopoly have helped earn the Philippines a prestigious PERC 97 Survey ranking on Asian investment risk that puts the country just behind Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

Inflation has dropped from 18.7 percent to 5.7 percent. Exports are up 23 percent so far this year. And, as a stabilizing factor, the large number of Filipinos working abroad brings in about $7 billion in payments to families back home. Even free Ramos should fail in his efforts to liberalize trade, “graduate” the country from International Monetary Fund controls and undertake tax reform before he leaves office, it seems unlikely that a successor would try to reverse the nation’s course.

Back in Manila, the Asian Development Bank, located in Manila, projects an average 6 percent growth rate in the ASEAN region, including the Philippines. That will require more than $90 billion in foreign development assistance going into the region over the next five years — much of it aimed at environmental difficulties and other environmental processes. American finance and technology can help.

Management and professional skills — the burgeoning service sector of trade — also will be stimulated. Given the English language proficiency of many Filipinos — and the nation’s position as second among developing countries in exports of computer services (after India), the Philippines again stands out for its business appeal.

The country offers the still further advantage of long-standing educational ties to the U.S. Ramos himself is a graduate of West Point and the University of Illinois, and thousands of other Filipinos have some connection to U.S. higher education.

At last year’s APEC Summit in Manila, President Ramos helped create EduNet, a program to provide interactive higher-education services among the Pacific Rim countries. There are now 44 universities in 16 nations conducting Internet teaching and learning under EduNet. And, though scarcely noticed here, this new system is headquartered at the University of Washington’s new APEC Study Center and is presided over by the internationally recognized U.W. professor, Donald C. Hellmann.

In Seattle, Ramos proposed a “Cyberseas Education Conference” made up of ten thousand students all working through time and Internet to teach developing nations through the Net, without ever having to leave their home offices.

That’s a good idea, the already operating EduNet, and several sizable commercial ventures from the Seattle area that are going into the Philippines indicate that this is a region the U.S. and Northwest “special relationship” — with the only ally and friend, the Philippines — can face and prosper in the 21st century if we build out on such joint partnerships.

Ramos’ impressive six year administration ends next May, and many observers (and perhaps Ramos himself) worry that a new government could revert to political pandering, cronyism and corruption. More likely is that Ramos’ privatization of unwieldy state enterprises and the streamlining of government processes will continue. 

Such reforms as foreign exchange deregulation and ending of the telecommunications monopoly have helped earn the Philippines a prestigious PERC 97 Survey ranking on Asian investment risk that puts the country just behind Singapore, Hong Kong and Japan.

Inflation has dropped from 18.7 percent to 5.7 percent. Exports are up 23 percent so far this year. And, as a stabilizing factor, the large number of Filipinos working abroad brings in about $7 billion in payments to families back home. Even free Ramos should fail in his efforts to liberalize trade, “graduate” the country from International Monetary Fund controls and undertake tax reform before he leaves office, it seems unlikely that a successor would try to reverse the nation’s course.

Over the long run, the Asian Development Bank, located in Manila, projects an average 6 percent growth rate in the ASEAN region, including the Philippines. That will require investments equaling $50 trillion between now and 2020. Some $10 trillion of that will be fore infrastructure: roads bridges, mass transit, transportation, plus waste-management facilities and other environmental processes. American finance and technology can help.

Management and professional skills — the burgeoning service sector of trade — also will be stimulated. Given the English language proficiency of many Filipinos — and the nation’s position as second among developing countries in exports of computer services (after India), the Philippines again stands out for its business appeal.

The country offers the still further advantage of long-standing educational ties to the U.S. Ramos himself is a graduate of West Point and the University of Illinois, and thousands of other Filipinos have some connection to U.S. higher education.

At last year’s APEC Summit in Manila, President Ramos helped create EduNet, a program to provide interactive higher-education services among the Pacific Rim countries. There are now 48 universities in 18 nations conducting Internet teaching and learning under EduNet. And, though scarcely noticed here, this new system is headquartered at the University of Washington’s new APEC Study Center and is presided over by the internationally recognized U.W. professor, Donald C. Hellmann.

In Seattle, Ramos proposed a “Cyberseas Education Conference” made up of tens of thousands of volunteers, “donating time and talent to teach developing nations through the Net without ever having to leave their homes and offices.”

That’s a good idea, the already operating EduNet, and several sizable commercial ventures from the Seattle area that are going into the Philippines indicate what is possible: a new U.S. and Northwest “special relationship” — with the only ally and friend, the Philippines. Peace and prosperity in the 21st century will be built on just such partnerships.