Inverted Economic Thinking
As we approach a new year, many economic commentators are spreading fear about the flat, or even inverted, yield curve. They claim it’s a sign of recession just ahead. The yield curve is a graphical depiction of interest rates on bonds of different maturities. Normally, longer-term bonds have higher yields than short-term debt instruments because of inflationary expectations and because more risk and uncertainty are to be found over longer periods of time. It’s true, an inverted yield curve often is a warning sign of recession. But only when other real-time market indicators, like commodity prices, confirm it. In the late 1990s and early 00s, the yield curve was for long stretches inverted — higher short term rates than long Read More ›