If a presidential election were held today and George Bush were the Republican
candidate, he probably would lose. But, fortunately for Republicans, the election is a year and a half away and much can change in the estimation of Bush's record and its legacy for his GOP successor. Right now the economy looks strong and the Bush Boom is bigger than people realize. That will matter as tax policy becomes an inevitable issue in '08. (The transformative Bush tax cuts of 2001 expire in 2010.)
Iraq is another matter, but there, too, one detects a potential shift of opinion
as voters begin to re-assess the Bush policy in light of the left's sanguine call for withdrawal of US troops. Everyone knows what carnage would follow a US pull out now. That galls the left, but the sober among them know it's true. Democrats therefore are stuck with opposing a policy for which they have no responsible alternative.
Slowly, it also is dawning on people that what we are risking in Iraq is part of a much bigger contest against militant Islamists world-wide. And in that context the American burden--unevenly distributed and terribly painful for those who pay the greatest sacrifice--is yet necessary to bear because the stakes are so high. The war against terrorists must be won and it may take a long time. That realization, if it takes hold, will help the party that has been relatively more resolute and clear headed about the
threat.
In the midst of our own domestic political drama there also comes a parade of relatively good news for conservatives in other parts of the world. France, much reviled by conservatives only a few years ago, has just elected an openly pro-American President, Nicolas Sarkozy. Swedes threw out their Socialist government earlier. Mexico elected Felipe Calderon, who at least seems to be a genuine reformer (though we've been down that path before), and certainly a man of the right. (And his left wing opponent would have been a huge thorn in America's side.) Germany chose Christian Democrat Angela Merkel, waving off the anti-American Gerhard Schroeder. Japan stays conservative under Shinzo Abe.
The French case is especially instructive. American conservatives had really given up on the French. This happens periodically, come to think of it. Maybe we should now be respectful and accept our good fortune with grace? And gratitude?
The new center-left government in Italy has not turned out to be anti-American at all. We have friends there.
And Hugo Chavez not only seems likely to bankrupt Venezuela, but his own political position, as inflation soars.
Then there is Cuba.....