I know a little about what is likely to be in the president's State of the Union (SOTU) address and, for what it is worth, I suspect the speech will be well received as principled, yet responsive to the supposed "bipartisan" atmosphere of a Democratic-controlled Congress. I personally expect to be pleased, but I don't expect that the energy portion of the speech will live up to economic adviser Al Hubbard’s prediction that it will "knock your socks off." Not my socks, anyhow.
Energy is a subject we have covered extensively at Discovery Institute’s Cascadia Center in recent years. (See today’s Seattle Times op-ed by Steve Marshall, who is a new senior fellow of the Cascadia Center, as well as retiring president of the Seattle Municipal League, and Bruce Agnew, chairman of the Cascadia Center.) If the president’s speech acknowledges the need to reduce dependence on gasoline and recommends a number of options for doing so, we at Discovery will all applaud politely. One of those options is the plug-in hybrid vehicle, using batteries to extend gas mileage several-fold. More polite applause. After all, plug-in electric hybrids (PHEVs) can sharply cut U.S. and world gasoline usage and lower air pollution world wide, and that can start to happen within in as little as a year, and then accelerate. Our national security situation starts to improve the moment we let it be known that we are going to stop subsidizing international opponents such as Iran and Chavez’ Venezuela.
But here's our concern. The U.S. Government is really past the time that pointing to the promise of plug-in hybrids is an adequate response to the opportunity available. Research money is fine, but we need action. Unlike other technologies that require several years to implement, plug-in hybrid technology is far enough along that the U.S. Government could jump start it with the expedient of an Executive Order (EO). No Congressional action is needed. The EO would direct the General Services Administration and the Postal Service to provide a purchase promise for some share of the 100,000 or so vehicles the federal government buys each year--providing specs that dictate acceptable plug-in hybrid technology. The purchase order for the federal fleet could be matched manifold by state and local governments that wanted to join in doing something dramatic and immediate to cut hydrocarbon emissions.
Such an order would give Detroit assurance that auto and truck manufacturers could start production of PHEVs very soon, perhaps even by the end of 2007. We believe that they are certainly close enough to needed improvements in lithium ion batteries to move into production before President Bush’s term ends. So, if the domestic auto industry indeed is awake to the opportunity--and recent announcements by General Motors and Ford suggest it is--then this represents a huge chance for it to recover its American and world market. If, after a year, Detroit can't meet the U.S. Government specs, let someone else try--say, in Japan. Helping struggling U.S auto manufacturers is a nice byproduct of what we suggest, but the main idea is to get the next generation of cars to use less fuel, and soon.
Unfortunately, I don’t expect PHEVs to receive a priority in the President’s speech comparable to its importance. (I hope I am pleasantly surprised.) Perhaps the institutionally cautious hand of OMB is holding back the president’s staff on this issue. Regardless, unless more imaginative minds can prevail in coming weeks, efforts to gain speed on this issue will depend on Congress. We have seen serious interest so far from—among others--Sen. Sam Brownback (R-KS), Sen. Joe Lieberman Independent D-CT), and Evan Bayh (D-IN), and, in the House, Rep. Jay Inslee (D-WA).
To fellow conservatives who suggest that the government should just let the free market lead in this field, I would point out that reducing gasoline dependence is a national security and economic independence issue. Further, we are not suggesting some new subsidy program, only targeted use of the government's existing purchasing power to make a desirable transportation transition. The whole federal fleet need not be enlisted, either, just enough to goose Detroit into faster action. Once Detroit is fully engaged, the private sector market will respond.
And, to repeat, the president can make this happen himself. He and his aides should consider that PHEVs are likely to be his most propitious energy choice, the one he can most likely bring to fruition during what’s left of his term of office. Pursue the others, of course, but step up the pace on PHEVs.
Be bolder, Mr. President.