The self-deluding temptation for a conservative president whose party has lost control of Congress is to cut deals with the opposing party in order to "get something done" before leaving office. When the deal is about trading off higher taxes for lower spending, he should be doubly on guard. And so should his supporters.
Unfortunately, President Bush has been making noises--or perhaps I should say, he is allowing "pregnant pauses"--that are encouraging speculation about a possible compromise to "save" Social Security. In a deal with the new Congressional majority, the Administration supposedly would get budget savings in the future (note: the future) while Democrats will get a definite increase in the Social Security tax for those making over $94,000 a year and maybe another raise in the retirement age. Even if the Democrats made good on their word, it would not be a good deal. "Savings" not spent this year can easily be spent in later years, while it is very hard to get any payroll tax reduced once it has been raised.
Experience in the Reagan years and the Bush 41 years shows that liberals ultimately cannot help spending any new tax revenue that comes along, no matter their fulsome promises beforehand. Liberals offer conservative presidents deals on taxes and spending the way the guy in the old story asks the restaurant owner, "Will you give me a hamburger today for $3 next Thursday?" If the owner is foolish, the burger gets eaten today and "Thursday" somehow never comes.
Why would the Bush 43 fall into that trap? I wouldn't believe he could, except that even Tony Snow--candid, reliable Tony Snow--is hedging in public statements now. Therefore, my sincere, loving, gentle message to the Administration is this: If you think your public opinion ratings are borderline now, watch the bottom fall out after you raise taxes.
Yes, you will get some false congratulations for "statesmanship" and "bipartisanship" from the New York Times and the network news, but that good feeling will last only until the bill is passed--and it will apply only to this topic. Former Sen. Warren Rudman (the gent who proposed the nomination of David Souter to the Supreme Court) will praise you warmly, of course, if that matters. Your approval ratings from members of the League of Women Voters will get a small, temporary bounce. You may even go up a notch in overall public approval--until the word gets out to your conservative base. Don't believe anything you hear to the contrary now: that base will be furious if you agree to a Social Security tax increase. They won't get over it, either, and it will undercut your ability to rally them for other purposes. It even will hurt you on Iraq.
As for your legacy, Mr. President, you have achieved a continuous economic expansion of historic significance. Bask in that. Don't destroy your credibility now.