MIT Tech Review: "The Wait Will Be Worth It" For Plug-in Hybrids

Matt Rosenberg

It will still be a few years - at least - before plug-in hybrid electric vehicles with much lighter, more reliable and less costly battery packs come to market, at truly consumer-friendly prices and in large numbers. Why should we care if and when that happens? Because: It gets very problematic very fast when we get much our current fuel for passenger vehicles, bus transit, air travel, surface freight, and operation of construction equipment from foreign regimes hostile to our nation and our very way of life; regimes which not coincidentally may also happen to fund terrorism directed at us. Then there are gas prices, now creeping back toward three dollars a gallon - not good. Add in the effects of fossil fuel emissions on air quality and greenhouse gas levels, and stir.

Hence the search for more secure and green sources of fuel, from renewables-powered electricity, and - one day hopefully not to far off - widely available, second-generation net-green biofuels (algae, biomass, cellulosic methanol, anyone?).

As the Natural Resources Defense Council points out, today's popular hybrid vehicles such as the Toyota Prius are able to run on electricity only when the battery is charged by the onboard gas engine or regenerative braking; in contrast, plug-in hybrids charge up, first, directly from household (or other similar) outlets, and when that electricity runs out then they run as conventional hybrids. They use less fuel than conventional hybrids, and won't let you get stranded when the charge runs out, as can occur with purely electric vehicles. Although to be fair, reasonable trip planning can obviate that problem with EVs, and efforts are underway to develop a public charging infrastructure for EVs and PHEVs - one important example being Washington State Rep. Deb Eddy's HB 1481, passed into law recently. Then too, some of the world's top engineers, including those at U.S. national laboratories in the Northwest, are continuing vital research into how peak-period demand on the electrical grid can be managed in the future, when many, many fleet and personal PHEVs might be charging, during after-work hours. At the same time, engineers are also looking at how charging durations can be sped up - particularly in public locations along urban region arteries and interstate highway corridors.

Despite the promise of both PHEVs and EVs, informed skepticism isn't hard to find these days, especially with respect to the plug-ins. Even from the quarters of our nation's highest-profile advocate of green transportation, the White House. Earlier this year, prior to you and I becoming majority owners of ailing automaker General Motors, President Barack Obama's advisors issued a "Viability Determination" that included this warning on GM's new PHEV model, the Chevrolet Volt:

GM is at least one generation behind Toyota on advanced, “green” powertrain development. In an attempt to leapfrog Toyota, GM has devoted significant resources to the Chevy Volt. While the Volt holds promise, it is currently projected to be much more expensive than its gasoline-fueled peers and will likely need substantial reductions in manufacturing cost in order to become commercially viable.

More raindrops on the parade. The Wall Street Journal's Environmental Capital blog accented a recent General Accountability Office report warning federal agency fleet managers of the seeming risks inherent now in buying PHEVs; and even Toyota is wondering aloud, in the New York Times, about whether PHEVs will have a limited appeal, barring battery-pack breakthroughs.

But MIT Technology Review's Energy Editor Kevin Bullis warns not to dismiss too quickly the distinct possibility that PHEVs will have a transformative effect as the technology ripens.

While the Volt might not be the perfect solution to reducing petroleum consumption--for one thing, at a rumored $40,000 apiece, it will be too expensive to sell in very large numbers--it seems at the least to be a step in the right direction. Indeed, it represents an overall direction that the administration supports, as seen by its emphasis on plug-in hybrids....GM will likely sell all of its first run of Volts, even at their high cost (more than 48,000 people have indicated that they want to buy the Volt). And economies of scale and advances in battery technology could bring costs down, allowing more people to buy the car. The wait would be worth it. Eventually, plug-in hybrids could allow most people to commute without using any gasoline.

Even with "dirty"-powered electricity there's a net green gain at the tailpipe, versus an engine burning traditional gasoline. And if the electricity comes from renewables, as policy-makers and the private sector will increasingly seek to ensure, that's even better. Meanwhile, GM has opened a new advanced battery laboratory. Call it a sign of the times. But what about PHEV mileage? Some pilot program tests drew skepticism when miles per gallon turned out to be less than hyped. Turns out there's a fairly simple answer, report experts interviewed by National Public Radio's "Market Watch" in a segment aired just two days ago: achieving top-range PHEV mileage depends on driver education, and sometimes, making sure to plug in your plug-in when it's resting.

James Francfort tracks plug-in hybrids for the Department of Energy:

JAMES FRANCFORT: We've demonstrated the potential to get 100, 200, 300, up to 400 miles-per-gallon depending on how the vehicles are driven.

Trouble is in early tests, Francfort found plug-ins hybrids weren't necessarily getting much better gas mileage than conventional hybrids.

Paul Scott of Plug in America says it's all about teaching consumers how to drive the cars.

PAUL SCOTT: You have to obviously charge the batteries.

Some test drivers weren't, and that meant the cars relied more on gas. And gunning the engine does the same thing. So if the cars are sold without any thought to consumer training:

SCOTT: Well, in that case then people might not buy them.

But if consumers are properly educated, Ed Kjaer (of Southern California Edison) says drivers could change their priorities.

Stay tuned. This one's got legs.

Buzz Keeps Building For Electric Vehicles And Plug-in Hybrids

Matt Rosenberg

A lot has happened since the Redmond, Wash. "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation" conference earlier this month on electric and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, which was sponsored by Cascadia Center, Microsoft, Idaho National Laboratory (INL), WSDOT, USDOT and Pemco Insurance. For starters, Time Magazine's environmental correspondent Bryan Walsh, who attended both days of the event and interviewed key sources there, has published an important article titled, "Is America Ready To Drive Electric?" Walsh writes:

If plug-ins suddenly became popular, before the grid had a chance to get smarter, it could lead to a real power predicament...A...solution: tap into the enormous extra capacity of the grid during off-peak times, like between midnight and dawn...To do that, however, we need to persuade plug-in owners to recharge ....late at night, when demand is low....to make that system work, utilities will need to install smart meters in customers' homes capable of monitoring when cars are charging, and then...price the juice accordingly; smart meters are already being tested out by utilities in California and Texas. These changes would also help utilities even out the peaks and valleys that come with providing power. "The hope is that we'll be able to actively regulate our grid to improve efficiency," says Brian Wynne, president of the D.C.-based Electric Drive Transportation Association. "There is tremendous potential."

A shift to plug-in cars could also help the development of renewable power...While a power grid fueled by solar or wind would be clean...it would also be intermittent...But if millions of electric cars were plugged into the grid, they could act as mini-batteries, storing renewable electricity as it's generated — and eventually even channeling electricity back into grid during cloudy or windless days, a system called vehicle-to-grid. "If you have control over renewable power resources and plug-ins, you can start to synchronize the two," says John Clark, CEO of V2Green, a Seattle start-up that is looking to integrate the grid and plug-in vehicles, and which has already begun field trials with utilities in Austin, Texas. "To utilities, electric cars can become batteries on wheels."

Clark (pictured, above right) shared additional details at Cascadia's "Beyond Oil" conference; his PowerPoint is the fourth from the top under "Thursday September 4th Presentations," here. V2Green's big idea has been steadily gaining notice, and just this week they've been bought by GridPoint of Arlington, Va. Seattle Times business reporter Angel Gonzalez writes:

The sale of V2Green, one of the region's most promising clean-technology companies, comes as electric vehicles seem to be gaining momentum as an alternative to fossil fuel-powered vehicles....The acquisition by GridPoint comes early in the life of V2Green, which was founded in late 2006 by former Microsoft executive David Kaplan. Chief Executive John Clark said the buyer is "an incredibly well-capitalized group on a mission that's very similar to ours. ...We can spend time out there trying to raise money or we can partner up. In this climate, having a lot of dry powder is not a bad thing," Clark said.

More here on V2Green from MSNBC's science editor Alan Boyle, who also attended "Beyond Oil," and later rode with Clark and the City of Seattle's Rich Feldman in a city-owned Prius converted to a plug-in as part of pilot project which, according to INL's Michael Hagood, Cascadia Center played a key role in facilitating.

All good, but what about automakers? How interested are they in electric and plug-in hybrid vehicles? In a word, very. Their survival depends on a new generation of leaner, greener vehicles, especially electrics, and plug-in hybrids that can run on electricity and liquid fuels. These must eventually include the second-generation biofuels now under development, derived from sources such as algae and byproducts of forestry and agriculture.

Chrysler To Develop Plug-in Hybrid Mini-van and Jeep Wrangler

General Motors, on its 100th birthday, last week unveiled a model of the new Chevy Volt plug-in hybrid coming to showrooms by 2010; and Chrysler announced that like GM and Toyota, it will develop plug-in hybrids - a Chrysler mini-van and a Jeep Wrangler.

None of this will be a slam dunk, either for manufacturers or consumers. Plug-in hybrids are going to cost somewhere between $30,000 and $45,000 at the outset, ballpark. The long-term cost savings on fuel and maintenance still make that a smart investment, but the price point could still be a stumbling block for some. The U.S. Senate this week passed legislation including a $7,500 tax credit for plug-in buyers; the House is to take up a similar energy measure before this Friday's currently-scheduled recess.

Another issue: the answers aren't all in yet on developing lithium ion batteries needed for plug-ins. Representing what they say is a small but crucial part of overall plug-in vehicle development costs, automakers are lobbying Congress to actually fund $25 billion in loans for R&D work on plug-ins, authorized in an earlier energy bill. (UPDATE, 9/25/08: The U.S. House has approved the loans and the Senate is expected to follow).

Plenty for free-marketeers and corporate critics to choke on there. But as Time's Walsh notes:

...even with infrastructure improvements, the shift to electric cars is likely to take years, even decades. According to Alan Madian, a director at the research firm LECG, even assuming solid growth, we can't expect more than 68 million plug-in hybrids by 2036, which would account for less than 17% of the total estimated fleet at that time. Given that the U.S. car fleet is likely to have grown to over 400 million vehicles by then, we may still end up using more oil in the future than we do today in a business as usual scenario. That's all the more reason for the government to get ahead of the curve and begin piecing together the electric infrastructure — smart meters, public charging points, more renewable power — that will speed the adoption of plug-ins. "A car affects the world more than anything else a buyer will purchase in his or her lifetime," says Felix Kramer, founder of the California Cars Initiative, a plug-in advocacy group in Palo Alto, Calif. Plug-ins can turn the car from a force for environmental destruction to something that frees us from oil — but only if we make it happen.

More public transit, employer transit, smart-networked ride-sharing, and telecommuting, plus smart-networked shipping that maximizes use of all available cargo space on long-haul freight trucks will be crucial if surface transportation is to limit its environmental footprint, and road congestion is to be controlled as population and employment grow. Exponential improvements to the country's freight rail and inter-city passenger rail networks are also key.

Nonetheless, the nation's vehicle fleet will remain vast, and so the need for clean electric vehicle fuel and net-green biofuels will only grow. What and how we drive will become vastly different, the only question is how soon and how thoroughly.

RELATED:

"Cascadia Center's 'Beyond Oil' Conference: A Wrap-up," Bruce Agnew, Cascadia Prospectus.

Full archive of blog posts on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, Cascadia Prospectus (various authors).

Cascadia Center's "Beyond Oil" Conference: A Wrap-Up

Bruce Agnew

A crowd of 500 key influencers from the private sector, government, academia and the media filled Microsoft's large meeting facility in Redmond for the Sept. 4-5 conference organized by Discovery Institute's Cascadia Center, "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation." Gripping presentations by former CIA Director James Woolsey, electric car systems entrepreneur Shai Agassi of Better Place (pictured, left), and Microsoft's sustainability guru Rob Bernard - plus groundbreaking vehicles on display, dozens of other great speakers and several high-level technical workshops - built a heady buzz and energized networking.

Among the take-aways:

U.S. national security is badly compromised by our dependence on foreign oil - we need to develop an even greater sense of urgency around breaking the habit.

Electricity and the second-generation bio-fuels now under development will have the ability to revolutionize transportation. Renewable energy sources must be fostered to make sure clean electric transportation can become a reality nationwide. Even so, electric engines represent an immediate improvement in tailpipe emissions.

Cleaner, greener vehicles will still need infrastructure. A new transportation funding paradigm for roadway, bridge and transit projects is emerging, as the gas tax falls into permanent decline. More of the slack will be taken up, over time, through tolling revenue from variably-priced high occupancy and toll (HOT) lanes. These are free to multi-passenger vehicles and transit, and available to solo drivers for a cost, which varies according to real-time congestion.

As vehicle engine technology advances, so will traffic navigational tools and alternative transport strategies. Among large employers, Microsoft leads the way with innovations including its WiFi-equipped "Connector" commuter bus and van service for employees. The company's "LiveMaps" technology illustrates how real-time road data can be transmitted to help choose optimal commuting windows. Meanwhile, a host of other technology companies are working on initiatives which before too long will allow every new car to become a moving computer, transmitting and receiving roadway data to manage the challenge of metro region mobility.

To drill down further, check out the speaker PowerPoints, all of which are linked to on this page.

"Beyond Oil" drew media coverage from a wide variety of outlets including major metro daily newspapers, talk radio, public affairs TV, industry journals, newspaper blogs and independent blogs. The conference also served as a focus for several Cascadia op-eds, in the Puget Sound Business Journal and Everett Herald. Links follow, and will be updated as additional pieces appear.

"Beyond Oil" Media Coverage, During And After The Event
Last updated 9/19/08.

"We Have The Tools To Cut Oil Dependence, It's Assembly That's Required," Steve Marshall & Bruce Agnew, Puget Sound Business Journal, 9/22/08.

"Powering The Carbon-free Grid: Sun, Wind, Water, Waves, Atoms And Conservation," TVW (Washington state's public affairs TV channel), 9/17/08. Panelists are: Jim Walker, American Wind Energy Assn.; Paul Genoa, Nuclear Energy Institute; Kevin Bannister, Oregon Wave Energy Trust; Rich Lauckhart, Ventyx Energy Advisors; Jim Piro, Portland General Electric.

"Transforming Transportation Globally,' Shai Agassi, Better Place (Sept. 5 luncheon keynote address), TVW, 9/16/08. Introduction by Tom Alberg, Madrona Venture Group.

"Only Intervention Of Electric Car Can Break Oil Addiction," David Seago, Tacoma News Tribune, 9/14/08.

"Making A Bold Case For Moving Our Economy Beyond Oil," Glenn R. Pascall, Puget Sound Business Journal, 9/12/08.

"Future Of Transportation, Funding and Climate Change," TVW, 9/12/08. Slade Gorton, National Transportation Policy Project; Paul Brubaker, USDOT's Research & Innovative Technology Administration; David Kaplan, V2Green; WSDOT Sec. Paula Hammond; Bill Rogers, Idaho National Laboratory; Neil Schuster, American Assn. of Motor Vehicles Administrators. Preceded by a presentation from Admiral Dennis Blair, Securing America's Future Energy.

"Updating The Big Rigs For A Greener Tomorrow," Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 9/11/08.

Rob Bernard Video: "The Road Ahead," TVW, 9/11/08. Microsoft's chief environmental strategist talks transportation, technology and environment. Preceded by Don Foley's update on national "X Prize" car rally, King County Executive Ron Sims, and welcoming remarks from Discovery Institute's President Bruce Chapman.

"Electric Cars, Biofuels Compete For Attention At Cascadia Conference," EV World, 9/10/08.

"Plug-in Cars Give Owners A Real Jolt Of Satisfaction," Debera Carlton Harrell, Seattle Post-Intelligencer, 9/9/08.

James Woolsey Video: "The Case For Change", TVW, 9/9/08. Former CIA Director Woolsey solo, with introduction from U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert; then joined by Chelsea Sexton, K.C. Golden; and followed by Peter Jackson.

"The Zen Of ZENN: Clean Driving," David Seago, Inside The Editorial Page blog, Tacoma News Tribune, 9/8/09.

"Beyond Oil: Energy Rush TV At Microsoft," Energy Rush TV blog, 9/8/09.

"Biofuel Musses Up Electric Car Fest," Angel Gonzalez, Seattle Times, 9/7/09.

"The American Politics Behind Rising Gas Prices," Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 9/6/08.

"Former CIA Boss Says Americans Are Funding The Bad Guys," Don Cayo, Globalization - For Better Or Worse blog, Vancouver Sun, 9/6/08.

"Beyond Oil," Eric Berman, Random Political Commentary blog, 9/6/08.

"American Business Driving A New Car Culture," Don Cayo, Vancouver Sun, 9/5/08.

"Report From The Trenches: 'Beyond Oil' Conference In Redmond, Wash.," Gordon Feller (CEO, Urban Age Institute), in Green Car Advisor, Edmunds.com, 9/5/08.

"Can The Developing World Dodge The Rich World's Mistakes?," Don Cayo, Globalization - For Better Or Worse blog, Vancouver Sun, 9/5/08.

"CEOs: Surprise Backers Of Cap-and-Trade; Obama, McCain Like Electric Cars," Aaron Corvin, Washington CEO blog, 9/5/08.

"Thank God For HOV Lanes," David Seago, Inside The Editorial Page blog, Tacoma News Tribune, 9/5/08.

"Expert: Peak Oil Is Real, Electrifying Transportation Is The Answer," Aaron Corvin, Washington CEO blog, 9/4/08.

"Beyond Oil," David Seago, Inside The Editorial Page blog, Tacoma News Tribune, 9/4/08.

"Beyond Oil" Pre-event Coverage

"'Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation' Conference In Redmond," Green Motorist, 9/3/08.

"Transportation Solutions To America's Oil Addiction Focus Of Conference," Energy Daily, 9/3/03.

"Transportation Solutions To America's Oil Addiction Focus Of Conference," Forbes.com, 9/3/08.

"Oil-free Snohomish County? It's No Longer A Pipe Dream," Steve Marshall & Bruce Agnew, Everett Herald, 9/2/08.

"Transportation: A Better Grid," Seattle Post-Intelligencer editorial, 9/2/08.

"Northwest Could Be A Leader In Electric Transport Systems," Steve Marshall & Bruce Agnew, Puget Sound Business Journal, 9/1/08.

"Big Post-oil Conference To Have Electric Cars, Bigwig Speakers," Jared Paben, Bellingham Herald, 8/26/08.

Dave Ross Show, KIRO-AM 710 Seattle, 8/22/08. (Guests: Steve Marshall, Anne Korin, Chelsea Sexton).

"Trucks - From Delivery Vans To Big Rigs - Need To Get Efficient Too," Steve Marshall & Bruce Agnew, Puget Sound Business Journal, 8/18/08.

"Turbulence In Air Travel: What High Fuel Costs Mean To Boeing," Steve Marshall & Bruce Agnew, 8/4/08.

Cascadia Center thanks its "Beyond Oil" co-sponsors: Idaho National Laboratory; Microsoft; U.S. Department of Transportation; Washington State Department of Transportation; Puget Sound Clean Air Agency; and Pemco Insurance.

Hurray For Transit, But It's No Silver Bullet

Matt Rosenberg

With U.S. gas prices blowing through the roof, transit ridership is growing along with enthusiasm for green vehicles that will run on electricity and liquid fuels, a.k.a. plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs. Cascadia Center has championed expanded transit for Central Puget Sound through proposals for an Eastside commuter rail line adjoining a walking and biking path, and regional passenger-only ferry service.

We will continue to do so. We also back more and better bus service across the region, employer-provided transit such as Microsoft's outstanding "Connector" service, car and van-pooling, and telecommuting. We see variable-priced highway lanes as essential to capping peak-hour solo drives, and also highlight improved roadway and vehicle technologies to ease congestion and pollution.

But all that said, vehicles are here to stay, and we'd better make them clean and green. That's where Cascadia Center's support for PHEVs comes in.

We need green vehicles in part because expanded transit is no silver bullet. Here in environmentally-aware, pro-transit metro Seattle, it's important to note that although the numbers are ticking upward, transit is used on only a small percentage of all trips within the region. This past October, the Puget Sound Regional Council reported on its 2006 Household Activity Survey. In the fourth item from the top, here, you'll see that across the four-county Seattle region, transit's share of 2006 trips is in the low single digits, about four percent based on the bar graph. Single- and multiple-occupant vehicles accounted for 84 percent of trips, with transit, walking and "other" dividing the remaining 16 percent. The four percent estimate is confirmed on p. ES-6 in the survey's executive summary.

Urban affairs and transportation writer Miro Cernetig of the Vancouver Sun earlier this year discussed Vancouver transit ridership in light of British Columbia Premier Gordon Campbell's bold $14 billion plan to beef up rapid transit rail (SkyTrain station at Burnaby pictured at right) and bus service in the next twelve years.

The premier hopes that by 2020 at least 22 percent of all our travels in Metro Vancouver will be on public transit, up from our current 12 percent.

The far-reaching Campbell is one of our favourite public officials, a North American leader on curtailing man-made greenhouse gas emissions, and using innovative public-private financing models to pay for transit and highway improvements. The current 12 percent transit share for metro Vancouver is quite impressive and 22 or 25 percent would be outstanding.

Especially considering the baseline. A recent USA Today story accenting new highs in transit usage contains a sobering counterpoint left out of most similar stories.

Still, only 5% of workers commute by public transit, according to a U.S. Census survey in 2006. (American Public Transit Association President William) Millar says no more than 20% of households have easy access to buses or trains.

Thanks in part to the gas price jump, which is likely permanent, transit's share of trips within regions is growing. But many recent media reports focus on percentage growth in transit use versus the recent past, rather than the more revealing share of trips for transit, which remains exceedingly modest in most metro regions.

One response is that increased density will change that. Except that in Puget Sound, as former Washington State Transportation Secretary Doug MacDonald painstakingly documented in the online newspaper Crosscut, newcomers are moving to the edges of the region more than the inner rings. There is a limit to the coercive power of the government, and also a wide gap between between transit advocacy and current transit market share in most locales.

Suppose transit use in the four counties grew five-fold from the PSRC's 2006 survey levels, due to high gas prices and growing concerns about man-made greenhouse gas emissions? That would still leave at least four-fifths of trips occurring via non-transit travel modes.

Q: How do we approach this broad segment of intra-regional non-transit using travelers, while easing traffic congestion and carbon-bearing vehicle emissions? A: In a wide variety of ways, including more robust promotion of ride-sharing and telecommuting; plus regional expansion of variable pricing on highway lanes; and encouraging automaker success in developing affordable, reliable green vehicles such as PHEVs. (A PHEV-centric discussion of clean-source electricity versus fossil fuel-derived electricity is found toward the end of this post).

In the meantime, take this to the bank: Beware the man with the silver bullet.

What's The Goal, Green Vehicles Or Gas Guzzler Subsidies?

Matt Rosenberg

Similar to some other automakers, the vehicles currently on offer from Dodge-Chrysler-Jeep include quite a few, such as SUVs, minivans and pickup trucks, that aren't really tooled for the motoring future that's already unfolding. That's a future with high gas prices that will be staying high, sharply slowing sales of gas-guzzling pick-ups and SUVs, and consumers ready to buy plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by the boatloads if automakers can deliver them with reliable lithium ion batteries and at prices of, say, $30,000 or less.

That price point is apparently the aim for GM's Chevy Volt, a PHEV to watch.

So with gas now pushing past $4 a gallon, what does Dodge-Chrysler-Jeep do? Accent their plans for future-facing vehicles? No. They unveil a promotional campaign to try to sell more of their energy hogs with a three-year subsidy to buyers to keep their gas costs at $2.99 a gallon. New York Times syndicated columnist and energy inquisitor Thomas Friedman has a pointed take.

....reckless initiatives like the Chrysler-Dodge-Jeep offer to subsidize gasoline for three years for people who buy its gas guzzlers are the moral equivalent of tobacco companies offering discounted cigarettes to teenagers.

I can’t say it better than my friend Tim Shriver, the chairman of Special Olympics, did in a Memorial Day essay in The Washington Post: “So Dodge wants to sell you a car you don’t really want to buy, that is not fuel-efficient, will further damage our environment, and will further subsidize oil states, some of which are on the other side of the wars we’re currently fighting. ... The planet be damned, the troops be forgotten, the economy be ignored: buy a Dodge.”

Friedman goes on to approvingly cite an economist's suggestion there actually be a price floor for unleaded regular gas of $4 per gallon, supported by mandatory increases in the federal gas tax if the market price goes lower, and with compensatory payroll tax deductions for those earning under $80K per annum. Whatever one thinks of the proposal, Friedman's central point is that the government needs to send a clear message the days of cheap oil and cheap gas are long gone and that consumers and fleet owners need to look ahead, to new technologies and fuels, not behind. He writes:

We need to make a structural shift in our energy economy. Ultimately, we need to move our entire fleet to plug-in electric cars. The only way to get from here to there is to start now with a price signal that will force the change.

Author Paul Roberts and the World Wildlife Fund report that the environmental benefits of plug-in electric cars accrue even if the electricity comes from fossil fuels. But as they both add, the cleaner the electricity, the greater the benefits of PHEVs and all-electric vehicles. That's why the Pacific Northwest is an ideal proving ground for a consumer-focused PHEV pilot project. Here's where clean hydro-power already reigns, where renewable energy sources are beginning to ramp up, and - deep breath, please - where nuclear power is slowly gaining traction, which Seattle Times editorial page editor James Vesely discussed last weekend, and his colleague Kate Riley detailed last spring. Even those fusty authoritarians at Wired are singing the praises of nuclear, both last week, and in greater detail as far back as 2005.

There's something happening here. Writing in the Wall Street Journal, R. James Woolsey, director of the CIA for president Bill Clinton, and Paula Dobriansky, current Undersecretary of State for Democracy and Global Affairs (pictured at right), herald the coming clean technology revolution in transportation. They stress the need for broad adoption of PHEVs running on clean electricity, and advanced second-generation biofuels made from sources including forestry and farming waste, and grasses. Also key, they write, are amped-up support from the feds and leading U.S. corporations for more production of electricity from nuclear technologies and from coal-fired power plants that sequester carbon. That last approach is something at the heart of a Washington-state based research project that should be allowed to continue, over misguided objections, as the Times' Riley recently opined.

Green-powered plug-in hybrids mesh with congestion pricing to ration peak hour highway capacity and carefully crafted public-private partnerships to fund necessary transportation infrastructure improvements. Public transit that can truly compete on travel times and convenience is part of the equation, as are expanded corporate transit, para-transit, and telecommuting. All are strategies to help manage growth, ease mobility and maintain environmental quality in burgeoning metro regions. Nobody said this would be easy.

Advanced navigational systems will help reduce congestion and pollution, too. That topic, along with congestion pricing and PPPs, will be covered at the June 26 West Coast Tolling And Traffic Management Workshop that our Cascadia Center will sponsor at Bell Harbor Conference Center on Seattle's waterfront. And save the date for our Sept. 4 and 5 conference, "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation."

Paul Roberts On The Promise Of Plug-in Hybrids

Matt Rosenberg

The May/June 2008 issue of Mother Jones is all about "The Future Of Energy," and one must-read article is "The Seven Myths Of Energy Independence," by Paul Roberts, author of "The End Of Oil."

Roberts argues that energy security is a far more achievable and strategic goal for the United States than energy independence, and the goal should be "massive increases in energy efficiency," particularly in the transportation sector. With that in mind, he details some of the reasons why plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs) hold such great promise.

....saving energy is almost always cheaper than making it: There is far more oil to be "found" in Detroit by designing more fuel-efficient cars than could ever be pumped out of (the Alaskan National Wildlife Refuge). And because transportation is the biggest user of oil—accounting for 7 of every 10 barrels we burn—any significant reduction in the sector's appetite has massive ramifications....if we persuaded carmakers to switch to plug-in hybrids, we could cut our oil demand by a staggering 9 million barrels a day, about 70 percent of our current imports.

Such a shift would impose massive new demand on an electric grid already struggling to meet need, but plug-in hybrids actually stretch the grid's existing capacity. Charged up at night, when power demand (and thus prices) are low, plug-in hybrids exploit the grid's large volume of unused (and, until now, unusable) capacity. Such "load balancing" would let power companies run their plants around the clock (vastly more cost-effective than idling plants at night and revving them up at dawn); as important, it would substantially boost the grid's overall output.

According to the Department of Energy, with such load balancing, America's existing power system could meet current power demands and generate enough additional electricity to run almost three-quarters of its car and light-truck fleet. That alone would be enough to drop oil consumption by 6.5 million barrels a day, or nearly a third of America's current demand.

Roberts also explains that environmental benefits will accrue from broader adoption of PHEVs even before much of the nation's electricity is produced from renewables rather than fossil fuels.

.....kilowatt for kilowatt, turning fossil fuels into electricity in massive centralized power plants and then putting that juice into car batteries is more efficient than burning fossil fuels directly in internal combustion engines, and thus generates fewer CO2 emissions per mile traveled. (Our existing fleet generates a third of America's CO2 emissions.) The DOE found that replacing three-quarters of the U.S. fleet with plug-in hybrids would cut vehicle CO2 emissions by 27 percent nationwide - 40 percent or more if the country's power system were upgraded to match California's low-carbon grid. And once the new fleet is in place, there is nothing stopping us from upgrading our power sources to truly renewable systems.

In a major report released last month titled "Plugged In: The End Of The Oil Age", the World Wildlife Fund also zeroes in on why broader adoption of PHEVs should be an urgent priority. Here's the full report, and an executive summary.

SAVE THE DATE - Sept. 4th & 5th: Make sure to save the dates September 4th and 5th of this year for Cascadia Center's 5th Annual TransTech Conference at Microsoft's Redmond campus. It's titled, "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation." A top-drawer cast of policy-makers and experts will speak on PHEVs, alternative fuels, and more. Event and registration information here.

RELATED:

Cascadia Center's "Beyond Oil" resource page.

Plug-in Electric Vehicles Get A Charge

Matt Rosenberg

The U.S. transportation sector contributes more than any other to manmade greenhouse gas emissions which threaten the planet's environment, while our nation's dependence on foreign oil means - as former CIA Director James Woolsey so astutely puts it - that we are funding both sides of the war on terrorism. Some say the answer is to "get people out of their cars," and certainly, the more who can be enticed to use public transit or telecommute, the better. I'm a regular Seattle bus rider, and telecommuter, myself. But cars are an uttter necessity for the majority of daily commuters, and indispensable for much discretionary personal transportation. That's just not going to change.

So, we can rail against cars and trucks. Or we can try to make more vehicles run on cleaner fuels, as we also muster political will to enact key road and transit improvements and institute a robust regional congestion pricing strategy.

As anyone not currently ensconced in a cave in Tora Bora knows, there's been growing scientific and investment capital devoted to developing cleaner vehicle fuels and energy sources. And one of those cleaner fuels, depending of course on how it is produced, is electricity.

There are hurdles still to clear on crucial lithium ion battery development for electric cars and - unavoidably - some uncertainty about ultimate levels of market penetration, but as we'll see below, the auto industry is increasingly committed to developing plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) in a big way. These will improve upon the popular Toyota Prius hybrid. They will plug in overnight at home and elsewhere during down times. They will run on electricity for as long as 40 miles between charges from more powerful lithium ion power packs, versus the Prius' nickel metal hydride batteries, which allow electric powered travel just at lower speeds and via brake pedal-activated regeneration. Some of the new models will be plug-in hybrids which can seamlessly switch to biofuels if and when the charge runs down, others will be extended range all electric plug-ins.

Cascadia Center's joint conference with Microsoft last year at the software firm's Redmond main campus brought some of the nation's top PHEV experts and advocates together - you'll find speaker presentations here, and links to conference press coverage here.

Since then, Cascadia Senior Fellow Steve Marshall has continued his peripatetic evangelism to keep building support for a Northwest PHEV pilot project. And with Cascadia Center director Bruce Agnew, Marshall has authored several op-eds on the topic - here, in the Puget Sound Business Journal; in NW Current; in the Sunday Seattle Times; and in the Seattle Times again. Our belief at Cascadia is that with the region's supply of clean, hydro-powered electricity and a growing commitment to alternative energy and fuels, the Northwest is ideal for ramping up electrified transportation. That's something the rest of the nation and world need to do too, in meeting the larger challenge to "green" surface transportation.

One Northwest pilot project approach now being considered is to find a way to look more closely at how PHEVs perform for everyday Northwest commuters in the private sector. Marshall has already helped link key players in a PHEV pilot project involving government agencies in the Seattle region.

Cascadia Center is also beginning to gear up for its 2008 annual Microsoft conferrence on transportation and technology, where the latest developments on PHEVs and all-electric vehicles will be among the featured topics. (It will be held in the May-June time frame; stay tuned to our Web site for more details).

There'll be a lot to explore because the momentum for longer-range, plug-in electric vehicles is building. At the Detroit auto show last month, General Motors Chairman and CEO Rick Wagoner said oil supply cannot keep pace with demand and the answer, mid- and long-term, is electric cars. GM's Vice-President of Global Program Management Jonathan Lauckner tells Wired the company plans to sell its plug-in hybrid Chevy Volt, now in development, globally and by the "tens of thousands," with models beginning to come off the assembly line in late 2010 and initial price around $40,000.

The Boston Globe's veteran auto writer Bill Griffith notes that the Volt will seat four or five passengers, will go 40 miles without a charge, and 600 miles without stopping when the onboard gas engine kicks in, as a generator only. Attending an unveiling of a Volt prototype outside Boston's Faneuil Hall at Quincy Market last week, he wrote:

The step Chevy is taking with its Volt is that the drive wheels are powered only by an electric motor, as opposed to other hybrid systems in which a combination of internal combustion engines and electric motors do the job. Even for someone who never took high school chemistry, the first question about the Volt came easily: Is it cleaner and more efficient to "plug in" this vehicle than to power it by burning gasoline? "In areas where electricity is produced by fossil-fuel plants, you can reduce overall emissions by up to 40 percent at fossil-fired plants that employ 'scrubbing' of combustion gases," said Keith Cole, director of legislative and regulatory affairs for General Motors. "But in areas where there is hydropower, nuclear power, or wind power, there's a huge advantage."

....Among the battery suppliers General Motors has been dealing with over the past five years of the Volt's development is A123 Systems of Watertown, a company with its roots in the Massachusetts Institute of Technology's research labs. As the car was being put on a carrier later that fall evening, Ric Fulop, A123 Systems' founder and vice president of marketing and business development, tried to explain the state of battery art to me by using a restaurant napkin. He started with the lithium-ion batteries that we still use in laptops and digital cameras. Fulop scribbled lines of formulas - hieroglyphics to me - each one a step toward finding the right combination of power, battery life, and safety....Rick Arnold, a museum educator and faculty member at the Tsongas Industrial History Center at the University of Massachusetts Lowell, followed Fulop's battery explanation step-by-step, asking questions along the way. His summation of the evening: "This is the biggest step forward in automotive engineering in the past 100 years."

Toyota cedes no ambition to GM on developing next-generation electric vehicles. Forbes reports the Japanese automaker has commited to unveiling two new plug-in hybrid prototypes at the '09 show in Detroit as part of its strategy to lease PHEVs to government and corporate fleet customers by 2010 and sell a million hybrids a year in the next decade. Toyota is teaming with Japan's largest consumer electronics manufacturer, Matsushita, in a joint venture to evaluate the feasibility of mass-produced lithium ion batteries for PHEVs, and is also working on developing ethanol from wood waste rather than agricultural crops. As The Oregonian's PDX Green blog reports, another "cellulosic ethanol" effort has launched, in Oregon. It's one of many in North America. Once further developed and distributed, such relatively clean and green "flexible fuels, or "flex fuels" would be a desirable complement to electrified vehicles, because many hybrid models will be able to run on these liquid alternative fuels, and electricity, extending average gas mileage range up to and even beyond 100 miles per gallon.

The implications, environmentally and geopolitically, are huge - and all upside.

Another oft-mentioned alternative fuel is hydrogen. Notably, though, the Toronto Star's Tyler Hamilton reports that two University of Waterloo students in Ontario who won the GM-U.S. Department Of Energy three-year "Challenge X" energy-efficient vehicle design competition have shifted their focus from hydrogen fuel cells to PHEVs.

"Ethanol, hydrogen, they're nice approaches, but we see the biggest impact coming from electrification," says (Matthew) Stevens, who's just finishing off the last year of a PhD in chemical engineering. "Electrification is by far the best bang for your buck. We're most excited about plug-in hybrids."

Stevens and partner Chris Mendes have formed a UW spin-off called CrossChasm Technologies, to develop software that manages power-sharing between the electricial grid and PHEVs. Shades of a Puget Sound firm named V2Green, profiled here in the Seattle Post-Intelligencer's Venture Blog by technology reporter John Cook. V2Green CEO David Kaplan spoke at the Cascadia-Microsoft conference last year. At Cleantech Blog, John Addison has more on future interplay between PHEVs and electric utilities, including an ambitious pilot project envisioned by XCel Energy's Smart Grid Consortium. More on that from the Denver Business Journal. Regarding V2G and the backdrop to the company's emergent smart grid technology, The Star's Hamilton notes:

The long-term idea is that plug-in vehicles, as they begin to take market share, could end up becoming back-up power systems for homes and the grid – an approach that would also require complex management.

Another Puget Sound company elbow-deep in PHEV technology is AFS Trinity Power Corp in Bellevue. As the Chicago Tribune reported last week, AFS is marketing an $8,700 "Extreme Hybrid" conversion kit, which is now being showcased on a customized, lithium ion battery-powered Saturn Vue PHEV prototype. With the kit, the Vue, which would otherwise have a normal cruising range of 10 all-electric miles before needing to recharge, can go 40 miles without a charge. Ultracapacitors and proprietary electronics boost battery power and control overheating, which is still a major concern with lithium ion batteries.

Finally for now, one more sign of the times. The Detroit Free Press reports this week that the University of Michigan has begun a new one-year graduate program which aims to train engineering students for work on clean vehicle energy systems including lithium ion battery power packs, and to prepare them for advancing the two-way connections between plug-in electric vehicles and the electrical power grid.

The race to develop clean vehicles and bring them to the masses is only in its infancy, but is of vital importance to the global environment and U.S. national security. The corporations and entrepreneurs who succeed will stand apart not only because of their smarts, but also their ambition and audacity. As famed Chicago urban designer Daniel Burnham said, way back when: "Make no little plans; they have no magic to stir men's blood."

With that at top of mind, we'll continue to keep you posted on developments in clean vehicle technology, including attendance and program information on what's sure to be an outstanding 2008 Cascadia-Microsoft conference, later this year.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, ELECTRIC VEHICLES, LITHIUM ION BATTERIES, PHEVS, BIOFUELS, FLEX FUELS, SMART GRID, CHEVY VOLT, TOYOTA, DETROIT AUTO SHOW, AFS TRINITY POWER CORP, V2GREEN, CASCADIA CENTER, MICROSOFT, UNIVERSITY OF WATERLOO, UNIVERSITY OF MICHIGAN

Domestic Demand Strains Global Oil Market

Mike Wussow

It seems the global oil market isn't immune to at least one law of nature: The apex predator has the most voracious appetite.

The New York Times reports that the very oil-exporting countries that are experiencing remarkable domestic economic growth because of the global demand for oil may soon become victims of their own success.

Experts say ... several of the world's most important suppliers may need to start importing oil within a decade to power all the new cars, houses and businesses they are buying and creating with their oil wealth. ... The report [by Canada-based CIBC World Markets] said "soaring internal rates of oil consumption" in Russia, in Mexico and in member states of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries would reduce crude exports as much as 2.5 million barrels a day by the end of the decade.

While unstable, undemocratic regimes are one thing (and not all oil exporters fall into the category), no one is going to begrudge the actual citizens of developing, oil-exporting nations the affluence and quality of life improvements that might come from global demand for the black gold burbling deep below their jurisdictional terra firma. Certainly, the United States, which relies on oil to drive its own economic engine, can't. (The New York Times says that although U.S. demand is flat, it continues to account for nearly one-quarter of the world's oil consumption.)

That said, reports of demand strains should raise the antennae of any American consumer who finds her purse or his wallet increasingly light after filling up at the pump. Internal domestic demand in oil states could tighten supply even further, especially if production capacity were to remain constant. Ergo, prices at the pump in Peoria are given even less reason to decrease as the number of oil-exporting countries gets comparatively smaller.

And for those of us who find it troubling that our addiction to oil props up and sustains many of the same rogue regimes that threaten American interests at home and abroad, the idea that supply will be in even fewer hands -- not necessarily of Uncle Sam's choosing -- is highly problematic.

Luckily for an oil-addicted America, our options aren't simply to acquiesce. Aside from only pursuing the politically charged (and depending who you ask, the environmentally damaging) option of opening up new areas for exploration, we have other options. Good options.

Among the best (we think) is something that Cascadia Center at Discovery Institute has been pressing for quite some time -- the electrification of transportation through the use of innovative vehicle technology (plug-in hybrid electric vehicles).

While not a panacea, supporting the development and use of vehicles that, with the flip of a switch, dramatically reduce our dependence on oil for transportation and simultaneously address environmental concerns, is perhaps the single best option we have. And it might work for our neighbor to the south too. In Mexico, according to The New York Times, the number of cars has "nearly doubled...in the last decade, and gasoline consumption is growing 5 percent a year."

The answer, of course, isn't to stop driving, but to change the way we power our vehicles. (Don't just take our advice; none other than America's de facto international affairs professor, columnist Thomas Friedman, writes about it often, including in this column one week ago.)

Then I got together with three engineering undergrads who helped launch the Vehicle Design Summit...These kids are building a hyper-efficient car, which, they hope, “will demonstrate a 95 percent reduction in embodied energy, materials and toxicity from cradle to cradle to grave” and provide “200 m.p.g. energy equivalency or better.” The Linux of cars!

We'll keep watching closely reports and analyses about global oil consumption habits. But we'll also keep pushing our ideas on electrifying transportation. Wouldn't it be nice to know that studies and reports about consumption demand or instability in oil states weren't such a concern for the United States? And wouldn't it, paraphrasing former CIA director, R. James Woolsey, be even better to know that driving to get groceries and that your daily commute didn't help fund both sides of the war on terror?

TECHNORATI TAGS: OIL, FOREIGN OIL, OIL SUPPLY, UNITED STATES, TERRORISM, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, ELECTRICITY, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, JAMES WOOLSEY, CASCADIA CENTER

Gas Tax Revenue Drop Will Continue, And Hasten Tolling

Bruce Agnew

The Seattle Times has a story this morning about new projections of a Washington state gas tax revenue shortfall of $1.5 billion, and the added impetus this gives to tolling as means of funding crucial transportation projects. The story says the expectation of state forecasters is for continued high gas prices and constrained demand, and that although the revenue shortfall is relatively small now, it is a real problem in the long term.

But that is only half of it. As we learned at our technology conference at Microsoft this year, the Prius is the fastest selling model for Toyota in the Northwest. On deck for Toyota, GM, Ford and other manufacturers are plug-in electric hybrid vehicles (PHEVs) which use electricity for their primary energy source and non-petroleum-based alternative fuels for back up. 2009 is the most likely date for mass market distribution for these vehicles - which coincides with the date the federal Highway Trust Fund is expected to go bankrupt.

With our commitment to renewable energy resources and tradition of hydropower, the Northwest could be the first area in the country to eventually power its transportation sector oil-free.

So yes, by all means bring on toll roads and more HOT lanes and public-private partnerships to help fill the transportation funding hole that will continue to grow due to dwindling state and federal gas tax revenues. At the same time, flexible, fast and convenient public transit can help, such as bus rapid transit and - in locales like Puget Sound - cutting edge low-wake, high-speed water taxis. So can vehicle trip reduction strategies including employer-provided buses, flexible carpooling, and telework.

Finally, let's acknowledge that scores of drivers and freight haulers are still going to be on the road, and help them "green the highway." In part, that means retrofitting park-and-ride lots with electric plug-ins; expediting government fleet purchases of PHEVs; and electrifying truck stops, port container storage yards, and rest areas on major Interstate highways such as I-5.

TECHNORATI TAGS: GAS TAX, WASHINGTON STATE, U.S., TOLLING, HOT LANES, TRANSPORTATION FUNDING, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, TRANSIT, GREEN HIGHWAYS

Greening The Highway From Baja To B.C.

Matt Rosenberg

Our Cascadia Center held a leadership forum Weds. Sept. 19 titled "Greening The Highway from Baja to B.C.," emphasizing the need for a unified West Coast effort to cut greenhouse gas emissions and congestion in the I-5 corridor through increased use of alternative fuels; diesel emission reduction programs; and on-board and in-roadway technology to save truckers and motorists time and fuel. Here's our discussion brief on the initiative, and here's a related radio story (and transcript) featuring Cascadia's director Bruce Agnew.

From the discussion brief:

An important opportunity is emerging for a concerted West Coast strategy to unify alternative fuel infrastructure and green vehicle development, diesel fuel emission reduction, and intelligent transportation system technologies. Together these could yield substantial environmental and economic benefits while providing a model for other major U.S. highway corridors. An additional consideration is that congestion pricing, though not part of the West Coast Green Highway initiative, would boost congestion relief and greenhouse gas reduction, particularly if pursued on a multi-state, I-5 corridor basis.

We expect to have a white paper published in coming months on greening the I-5 corridor. We'll keep you posted as this effort continues to unfold.

UPDATE: TVW coverage. Washington state's government and public affairs channel, TVW, taped and broadcast the entire "Greening The Highway" program of Sept. 19, 2007. Here are the three video segments as they aired on TVW. You will need to have either Windows Media or Real Player installed on your computer to view. For any additional playback tips, go to TVW's Streaming Help Page.

"Greening The Highway," Segment 1 - Bruce Agnew, Cascadia Center; Sharon Banks, Cascade Sierra Solutions; Matt Rosenberg, Cascadia Center.
LINK: Segment 1.

"Greening The Highway," Segment 2 - Peter Murchie, U.S. EPA; Allison Seton, Hydrogen + Fuel Cells Canada; Jeff Doyle, WSDOT; Allison Hamilton, ODOT.
LINK: Segment 2.

"Greening The Highway," Segment 3 - Colette Brooks, BioBling/Big Imagination Co./SoCal Biodiesel Co-op; Paul Landry, B.C. Trucking Assn.; Janet Ray, AAA Washington.
LINK: Segment 3.

TECHNORATI TAGS: GREEN HIGHWAY, BRITISH COLUMBIA, WASHINGTON, OREGON, CALIFORNIA, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, DIESEL FUEL EMISSIONS, INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS

"Replacing Oil With Electricity And Biofuels In Transportation"

Matt Rosenberg

My colleague Steve Marshall, a senior fellow at Discovery Institute's Cascadia Center For Regional Development, has authored a new white paper, for the Third Annual Conference On Renewable Energy In The Northwest. It's titled, "Replacing Oil with Electricity and Biofuels in Transportation: The Convergence of Technology and Public Policy." The pdf file is here.

Marshall cites data showing transportation plays a major role in greenhouse gas emissions, especially in Washington state, and argues that clean electricity and biofuels used to power vehicles can yield substantial environmental, economic and political benefits. Marshall provides a detailed factual narrative of commitments to test and develop plug-in hybrid vehicle technology by vehicle manufacturers, electric power utilities and technology companies. He also highlights the potential for a Northwest Pilot Project to help policy-makers and electric utilities better understand how plug-in hybrids can be integrated with our region's electric power system.

He writes:

Washington State enacted legislation that provides initial funding for a plug-in hybrid pilot project...There is an effort underway for our region to work with the federal government to design a pilot program to determine how best to integrate plug-in hybrids into our power grid and the existing transportation system...Should we provide recharging at bus park and ride lots and transit centers? Provide “green lane” incentives? What replaces gas tax revenues if and when flex-fuel hybrids cut gas consumption and thus gas tax revenues? Is it time to test congestion pricing as a substitute?

Federal Energy Regulatory Commission member Jon Wellinghoff has proposed a “cash-back hybrid,” that would link the vehicle to grid with two way power flows. Imagine an owner of a PHEV being able to drive to a park and ride lot, park and plug in his or her car and get free recharging and a small check at the end of the month simply for being connected to the grid and able to supply ancillary services or standby peak power.....A Northwest pilot project could test and refine, for example, the use of a utility-controlled chip for allowing recharging at optimum times and for Vehicle to Grid (V2G) services.

Much as Thomas Edison’s Pearl Street project...demonstrated...the electric light bulb was part of a larger and necessary system of electric power production and delivery, we need a similar demonstration for flex-fuel, plug-in hybrids as part of an overall transportation and power system.

We'll keep you posted on progress toward the goal of fully funding a Northwest Pilot Project to help integrate PHEVs with the regional transportation and power system.

Additional resources:

"Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Electric Power Research Institute, Natural Resources Defense Council, 7/07;

"Go Green, Go Fast: Jump Start To A Clean, Secure Energy Future With Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Steve Marshall, Bruce Agnew, Seattle Times, July 2, 2007;

"Green Wheels Are Spinning For Venture Backers," Steve Marshall, Bruce Agnew, Puget Sound Business Journal, May 25, 2007

"City Plugs In To Hybrid Car Trend: Toronto To Launch Pilot Project With Cars That Can Be Charged From Any Wall Socket," Tyler Hamilton, Toronto Star, May 24, 2007;

"How To Improve The Efficiency Of The World's Biggest Machine - While Solving A Few Other Problems Along The Way," Jon Wellinghoff, Commissioner, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission, May 7, 2007;

"Plug-In Hybrid Electric Cars - How They'll Solve The Fuel Crunch," Ben Hewitt, Popular Mechanics, 5/07;

"Gentlemen, Start Your Plug-Ins," R. James Woolsey, Opinion Journal (Wall Street Journal), Jan. 1, 2007;

Impacts Assessment Of Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles On Electric Utilities And Regional U.S. Power Grids - Part 1: Technical Analysis," Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 12/06.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, FUEL EFFICIENCY, ELECTRIC POWER GRID, CASCADIA CENTER, NORTHWEST PILOT PROJECT, STEVE MARSHALL

New Study: PHEVs Could Help Slash Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Matt Rosenberg

A new study issued by the Electric Power Research Institute and the Natural Resources Defense Council reports that adoption of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles by consumers and fleet managers could by 2050 cut U.S. carbon dioxide emissions by 163 to 612 million metric tons, and total U.S. greenhouse gas emissions by 3.4 to 10.3 billion metric tons.

How much of a difference would that really make? MIT Technology Review assesses the study's findings this way:

The study shows that if plug-in hybrids are adopted widely in the United States, and if measures are taken to clean up power plants, by 2050, plug-in hybrids could reduce carbon-dioxide emissions by 612 million metric tons, or roughly 5 percent of the total U.S. emissions expected in that time frame, according to Marcus Sarofim, a researcher at MIT's Joint Program for the Science and Policy of Global Change. That's a significant amount, he says, considering that transportation accounts for only about a third of the total greenhouse-gas emissions.

But if plug-in hybrids account for only a small part of the total vehicle sales in 2050 (about 20 percent, compared with 80 percent in the first scenario), and if little is done to improve pollution from power plants, the vehicles will still reduce greenhouse emissions by about 163 metric tons, according to the study.

More here from the Los Angeles Times, Washington Post, International Herald Tribune, and San Jose Mercury-News.

The NRDC, a prominent environmental group, stipulates (p. 10 of Executive Summary section) that it supports introduction of PHEVs "accompanied by substantial improvements in power plant emission rates." That's an appropriate caveat which highlights the need for an intensified focus on acheiving a cleaner electricity supply.

Today's hybrid electric vehicles, such as the popular Toyota Prius, have helped generate a growing interest in making personal transportation cleaner, something that's an important societal objective because despite a worthy focus on improving metropolitan region transit services, the majority of vehicle trips nationally will continue to occur in privately-owned vehicles.

Current hybrids such as the Prius are not plugged into a wall socket overnight but use electricity generated through an on-board battery to intermittently power their ride, along with conventional fuel when necessary. Hence the name "hybrid."

But a greener plug-in hybrid is now being developed by none other than Toyota, as reported by the San Francisco Chronicle and the MIT Technology Review editors' blog. Also engineering their own PHEVs for market are Chevrolet and Ford. The automakers will employ increasingly smaller, lighter and eventually less costly state-of-the-art lithium ion batteries to power vehicles electrically and achieve greater fuel efficiency than today's hybrid electric vehicles.

The EPRI/NRDC study reports that the lower the carbon dioxide emissions in the national electric power sector, and the longer the range of the PHEV, the greater the reduction in overall greenhouse gases versus a conventional hybrid vehicle in 2050. The GGE improvement, for medium and longer range PHEVs versus hybrids, will range from 27% to 46% per vehicle, according to table 5-3 on p. 5-6 of the study.

Imagine a national fleet with an increasing proportion of plug-in hybrids that run one-quarter to one-half cleaner than an advanced conventional hybrid electric vehicle. Imagine that truck fleets are plugged into the grid too, with corresponding decreases in diesel fuel emissions.

To get there will take not only a cleaner electricity supply, but advances in developing and distributing truly green biofuels, as well. Should the path to widespread use of green vehicle fuels include a carbon tax or a higher federal gasoline tax? Syndicated columnist Steve Chapman thinks so.

Given the huge political obstacles, a successful push for either would need to emphasize the serious public health effects of airborne particulates as much or more than the current de riguer hand-wringing and blame-casting over global warming.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, CARBON DIOXIDE, ELECTRIC POWER RESEARCH INSTITUTE, NATURAL RESOURCES DEFENSE COUNCIL, GREEN ELECTRICITY, BIOFUELS, CARBON TAX, FEDERAL GAS TAX, AIR POLLUTION, PUBLIC HEALTH

"Green Wheels Spinning For Venture Backers"

Matt Rosenberg

In a Puget Sound Business Journal op-ed titled "Green Wheels Are Spinning For Venture Backers," Cascadia Center Director Bruce Agnew and Senior Fellow Steve Marshall write that transportation's sizable contribution to carbon dioxide emissions necessitates more investment in green vehicle technology. They say such investment can yield further improvements in promising battery technology for low-emission electric and electric-biofuel hybrid cars; plus intelligent systems to integrate plug-in hybrids with the power grid and with intermittent renewable energy sources such as solar and wind power. Drawing on a presentation from Cascadia's "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future" forum last month at Microsoft's Redmond campus, Agnew and Marshall write:

Tom Alberg, a managing director of Madrona Venture Group, of Seattle, said the venture capital community has awakened and will be a helpful ally in moving toward energy independence and green energy. He noted that promising areas include more efficient conversion of biomass to fuels; batteries and other improved storage devices for power; software networks that make the electric grid more efficient; and predictive technologies for automobiles, which can help drivers avoid fuel-wasting traffic congestion.

Marshall and Agnew continue:

......Investing in green transportation technologies has paid off this year in another part of the country. A venture capital-backed spinoff from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology called A123 Systems has developed a new type of rechargeable lithium ion battery that is much more powerful and durable than current hybrid car batteries.

This month, A123 announced that its new technology will allow automakers to build PHEVs with a battery pack lasting more than 10 years or 150,000 miles. General Motors is looking at using A123 batteries in its plug-in Saturn Vue due in 2009, and its plug-in electric Chevy Volt due the following year. A123's battery announcement may well accelerate those rollouts and boost competition among major automakers to produce the first commercially available rechargeable vehicle.

Popular Mechanics has weighed in, with an article by Ben Hewitt titled, "Plug-in Hybrid Cars: How They'll Solve The Fuel Crunch." The magazine reports it has run the numbers on ethanol and hydrogen as potentially greener replacements for fossil fuels, and neither fares well, while according to a 2006 study by the Department of Energy's Pacific Northwest National Labs, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are projected to reduce greenhouse gas emissions 27 percent in the U.S., even if the electricity to power them comes from the traditional "dirty" coal production method. As PNNL researchers write on p. 12 of the above-linked study:

For the nation as a whole, the total greenhouse gases are expected to be reduced by 27% from the projected penetration of PHEVs. The key driver for this result is the overall improvement in efficiency along the electricity generation path compared to the entire conversion chain from crude oil to gasoline to the combustion process in the vehicle. Fundamental to this result is the assumption that a PHEV by itself would be more efficient than a conventional gasoline car because of the regenerative braking capability that stores the kinetic energy in the battery during deceleration and because the engine operates at near optimal conditions more of the time than in conventional vehicles.

For PHEVs to gain strong market share, Hewitt writes, incentives for off-peak recharging will be needed, along with solid plans to corral needed lithium from global repositories, to power PHEV batteries.

TECHNORATI TAGS: CASCADIA CENTER, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS, LITHIUM BATTERY, POPULAR MECHANICS

BC To Push For More Green Taxis

Matt Rosenberg

"Provincial Government Wants Cab Companies To Go Green," is the top story today in Vancouver, B.C.'s morning paper, The Province. British Columbia Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon is urging the regional board charged with granting taxi licenses to dispense them only for highly fuel efficient or hybrid vehicles, in order to help reduce the province's cumulative greenhouse gas emissions by at least one-third in the next 13 years.

Fewer tailpipe emissions from petroleum-based fuel, combined with greater use of cleaner liquid fuels plus ongoing adoption of liquid fuel+electric-powered hybrid vehicles, is green. Eventually, as lithium ion battery technology continues to improve, expect to see more plug-in hybrids in Vancouver's taxi fleet and on the streets of Cascadia's big cities - Vancouver, Seattle and Portland - where more conventional hybrids such as the Toyota Prius are already common and growing in popularity. Plug-ins, now under development by major automakers such as Chevy and Toyota, go even further on a charge, after loading up on electricity from a common wall outlet during off-peak hours.

But as Toyota's Bill Reinert stressed at last week's "Jump Start to A Secure Clean Energy Future" conference sponsored by our Cascadia Center of Discovery Institute, the electricity used to power plug-in hybrid vehicles must be clean, or the green benefits diminish. Likewise, others have noted, clean, green liquid fuels must be rigorously evaluated to ensure they really are clean and green, not merely coasting on hype. The type and amount of energy required to produce alternative fuels must not greatly lower the net gain to the environment when they are used in place of fossil fuels.

That said, hybrid vehicles using electricity and liquid fuels are already environmentally and economically attractive to some fleet managers. Gauging reaction to the transport ministry's announcement today, The Province reports:

"I think it's a good idea," said John Palis, general manager of Black Top and Checker Cabs in Vancouver. "We're getting away from the days of the old used police-cars, and those old big gas-guzzlers. It's a matter of economics, plus it's the correct thing to do." Palis said hybrids have been on Vancouver roads since 2000. One hybrid taxi ran 330,000 kilometres without any engine problems. It so impressed Toyota that they took the old cab and traded it for a new one, in order to study the engine.

"The current hybrid cars that we're using have proved themselves some of the most reliable cars we've ever purchased," Palis said. The fuel-burning rate of a hybrid is less than 50 per cent that of a standard cab, Palis said. That translates into a saving of $10,000-12,000 a year in fuel costs. "Over the course of four years, the vehicle virtually pays for itself," he said.

According to the B.C. Transportation Ministry's press release today:

As part of the government’s plan to take action on climate change, a new emphasis will be placed on promoting eco-friendly taxis in the Vancouver and Victoria areas, Transportation Minister Kevin Falcon announced today. “This government’s goal is to reduce B.C.’s greenhouse gas emissions by at least 33 per cent below current levels by 2020,” said Falcon. “This is an aggressive target and it sets a new standard in transportation. That’s why I am asking the Passenger Transportation Board to take into account the Province’s greenhouse gas reduction policy in all its decisions – to help create a cleaner environment for all British Columbians.”

Falcon has sent a letter to the Passenger Transportation Board, requesting that all approvals of applications for taxis in the Greater Vancouver Regional District (GVRD) and the Capital Regional District (CRD) be for eco-friendly vehicles (hybrid or other highly energy efficient vehicles) only. This would extend to approvals for new licences or additional vehicles under current licenses in the GVRD and CRD....."We are going to continually seek new ways to promote clean transportation in B.C.,” said Falcon. “This is the first step towards developing a commercial passenger transportation system which produces a minimum of greenhouse gases.”

All-electric lithium battery-powered PT Cruiser taxicabs developed by Hybrid Technologies are to begin operating in New York City. The company last week demonstrated other electric vehicles at our "Jump Start" conference in Redmond, part of a larger mix of hybrids and electrics on display there.

Green vehicles and fuels are rightly in the limelight these days. Also especially important environmentally in the transportation sector are commercial trucks, which leave a considerable footprint of greenhouse gas emissions. We'll get to that another day.

TECHNORATI TAGS: VANCOUVER, GREEN TAXIS, HYBRID VEHICLES, FLEX FUELS, KEVIN FALCON, BRITISH COLUMBIA, TRANSPORT MINISTRY

In The News: "Jump Start" Conference On Hybrids, Flex Fuels

Matt Rosenberg

Monday, May 7th's "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy" conference - staged by our Cascadia Center of Discovery Institute with the cooperation of co-sponsors and event host Microsoft - garnered front-page, top-fold coverage the next day in the Seattle Times. The article was titled, "Fans Of Plug-in Cars Build Their Power Base." The same story, by reporters Hal Bernton and Mike Lindblom, ran in the Yakima Herald-Republic.

The Seattle-Post Intelligencer's Robert McClure covered the conference as well; in "Visions Of A Northwest Hybrid Car Future Abound."

Crosscut publisher David Brewster provided reportage, background and analysis, in "Will Plug-in Cars End The Age Of Oil?"

Along with several other newspaper editorialists and opinionators, Gary Crooks of the Spokane Spokesman-Review attended "Jump Start" - and weighed in with this editorial; "Fueling Inertia." Crooks' colleague Rebecca Nappi, the paper's Associate Editorial Page Editor, wrote a Sunday May 13 column drawng on our event and her experience as a Toyota Prius hybrid owner, "Hybrids Arrive As 'The Cool Cars'." The Everett Herald's editorial page editor Bob Bolerjack was also in Redmond for the event, and penned this Sunday May 13 editorial, "Plug-in Cars Show Promise; Let's Address Obstacles."

Seattle's all-news KOMO-AM 1000 came, and on May 7 aired several iterations of a story filed by reporter Sue Romero - audio clips here and here. A brief item aired on KING-5 TV 11 p.m. news May 7. TVW, Washington state's public affairs cable channel, taped the day-long event live and began airing the seven segments last week. The TVW segments are available for viewing here.

At Cascadia Prospectus, live blog posts from the conference were "Your Ride Shapes Our National Security, Environment;" and "Driving To A Cleaner Future." Seattle Times senior tech writer and columnist Brier Dudley also wrote about "Jump Start" on his blog, in "Beyond The Prius: Plugging In To Green Transportation."

Scroll down to "Speaker Slideshow Links" here to get key informational points presented at the conference.

TECHNORATI TAGS: RENEWABLE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, PHEV, NATIONAL SECURITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, VEHICLE TO GRID

Your "Ride" Shapes Our National Security, And Environment

Matt Rosenberg

Cascadia Center "Jump Start" Conference Live-Blog Post #2

REDMOND, WA. -- I'm live-blogging today from "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future," the conference our Cascadia Center For Regional Development is co-sponsoring at Microsoft's Redmond campus. (My first live blog post of the day is here). Underway now is the panel, "National Security Imperatives For Flex-Fuel Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles." It features Anne Korin and Gal Luft, Co-Directors of the Institute For The Analysis Of Global Security; and former CIA head and National Commission On Energy Policy Commissioner R. James Woolsey. In an exclusive video address to the conference, Woolsey said:

This war against terror is the only war we have fought, since the civil war, where we finance both sides....next time you pull into the gas station, look at yourself in the rear view mirror. Now you know who is paying for the madrassas in Pakistan. We ought to be decisively moving away from oil as a strategic commodity.

Advances in battery technology must and will continue, yielding plug-in hybrid vehicles that will get 125-150 miles per gallon of gas and go 30 to 35 miles on a single charge. With flexibile fuel capabilities, and running on, for instance, a liquid fuel blend that's 85 percent cellulosic ethanol and 15 percent gasoline, a PHEV will be able to get 500 mpg, Woolsey said. That grows to approximately 1,000 - yes, 1,000 mpg - if the vehicle is constructed of the lightweight carbon composites used in aerospace and race cars, Woolsey added. He concluded:

One thousand miles per gallon ought to be enough to make a Wahhabi frown.

Luft said the average life cycle of cars in the U.S. is 16.8 years, and "if it only knows how to run on gasoline, that is what it will do for the next 16.8 years....We need to give people fuel choice:" including more and longer lasting electricity through plug-in hybrid technology, plus butanol, methanol and other fuel sources. All new cars manufactured for the U.S. market should by federal mandate be flex-fuel capable, Luft recommended.

Korin urged, if you want action you have to make this a voting issue, so support the DRIVE Act to cut oil imports, and boost fuel and vehicle choice; and lobby your elected representatives in Congress to do so as well.

On a following panel here today covering climate change imperatives for flex-fuel plug-in vehicles are K.C. Golden, policy director of Climate Solutions; Dr. Andrew Frank of University of California, Davis; and Dr. Philp Mote, climatologist, University of Washington.

TECHNORATI TAGS: PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES, PHEV, FOREIGN OIL, NATIONAL SECURITY, CLIMATE CHANGE, ENVIRONMENT, ANNE KORIN, GAL LUFT, K.C. GOLDEN, ANDREW FRANK, PHILIP MOTE

Driving To A Cleaner Future

Matt Rosenberg

Cascadia Center "Jump Start" Conference Live-Blog Post #1

REDMOND, WA -- Political and business leaders along with consumers are mobilizing to minimize man's contribution to climate change and global warming. Even as mass transit spreads, personal vehicles will indisputably remain vital for many commuters, especially those with multi-stop "trip chains". Cleaner fuels and cars are considered essential, and the popularity of the Toyota Prius electric-gas hybrid is a leading indicator. There are varied reasons why we need to wean our nation off foreign oil while embracing clean electric and renewable fuel sources, and plug-in hybrids which can double the excellent mileage of the Prius. National security and environmental protection rank high on the list, as Cascadia Center for Regional Development's Director Bruce Agnew and Senior Fellow Steve Marshall explain in this Seattle Times op-ed.

With this in mind, Cascadia Center and co-sponsors today are staging the "Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future" conference from Microsoft's campus. We've got a full house. In the opening hour, King County Executive Ron Sims said:

"The technologies that we see today, we'd like to see them mature...One of my sons once told me, you're part of the problem not the solution. Your buses pollute. He was right. Now, King County has more than 140 hybrids in its fleet, and a soft order for 440 plug-in hybrid vehicles."

Sims also outlined how King County biosolids will be used to fertilize Eastern Washington canola crops used to develop biodiesel.

Buzz Rodland's Toyota dealership in Everett has been selling scads of Priuses, as the Everett Herald recently reported. Rodland, Snohomiish County board member of the Washington State Auto Dealer Association, told the audience:

"...it's time to clean up our act, and hybrids have really started to help with that. Year-to-date in the Pacific Northwest, the Number One-selling car is the Toyota Prius. We think it will end up the Number One-selling car in the Northwest this year. The buyers" are forming clubs and advocating for the car, "when they fill up at gas stations, which isn't very often."

Bill Reinert is the National Manager for Toyota USA's Advanced Technologies Group. Closing out this morning's Auto Industry Update, he observed:

"We are developing plug-in hybrids, we are developing lithium ion batteries. We may not go as fast as some of you would like," but we want to be sure we get it right.

Reinert said oil exploration success peaked in the 1960s; much current production is now in increasingly remote, or environmentally or politically problematic areas; the cost and carbon emissions are substantial. That leads us to a new era of conservation, Reinert said, and hybrid (electric and liquid fuel) cars currently have the smalllest carbon footprint.

But where the electricity comes from to power hybrids is crucial; it must be more and more from clean sources and less and less from traditional coal-powered generation, or the environmental advantages of hybrids become diminished, Reinert warned. Making clean-powered hybrid vehicles work in states like Michigan, Kentucky and Texas - which still rely heavily on coal-powered electricity - will be a key challenge, he added.

We'll hear more this afternoon about the market landscape for cleaner cars in the panel discussion, "Plug-In Hybrid Vehicles: How Soon And What Impact?" Panelists are: Roger Duncan, Austin Energy/Plug-In Partners; Felix Kramer, founder, Caliifornia Cars Initiative; Greg Rock, Co-Founder, Green Car Company; Nicholas Zielinski, Vehicle Chief Engineer for the Volt, General Motors.

TECHNORATI TAGS: RENEWABLE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID VEHICLES, PHEV, TOYOTA PRIUS, BILL REINERT, NICK ZIELINSKI, CHEVY VOLT, RODLAND TOYOTA, GREG ROCK, GREEN CAR COMPANY, FELIX KRAMER, CALIFORNIA CARS INITIATIVE, ROGER DUNCAN, AUSTIN ENERGY, PLUG-IN PARTNERS

Green Idaho A Harbinger

Matt Rosenberg

The Idaho Statesman reports:

The most conservative state in the union is a part of a remarkable cultural shift toward environmental values. Consider:

• Al Gore attracts 10,000 people to his slide show on global warming at Taco Bell Arena in January.

• Bill Moyers highlights Boise's evangelical Vineyard Fellowship for its environmental message and acts in the PBS special "Is God Green?" last fall.

• Former Gov. Jim Risch gets a standing ovation from a largely Republican crowd when he announces in Twin Falls last year that Idaho plans to opt out of a mercury pollution trading program, keeping coal-fired power plants out of the state.

Growing concerns about climate change are pegged as one big reason for Idaho's higher environmental profile. But conservation has hardly been a foreign concept to conservatives; as the etymology suggests. Adding to pressure for change that's coming from the global warming dialog, is a new and more inclusive profile for the environmental movement. The Statesman:

...environmentalism became tied closely with the counterculture, hippies, organic foods, and demonstrations, said Doug StanWiens, a history teacher at Timberline High School. The new environmental culture he sees growing in popularity with his students is very different...."It's not about scarcity or sacrifice," StanWiens said. "The kids haven't seen that. It's about choices."

...Idaho Conservation League Executive Director Rick Johnson...(says)..."When you're picking the people you invite into your home for dinner you would not pick an environmentalist....They're stereotyped as whining, shrill, they won't eat the food, they stuff themselves with the vegetables and tell you to turn down the thermostat." Companies and political opponents worked hard to develop that stereotype, Johnson said. But there was some truth to it.

The new environmental culture is not just generated by environmentalists. It's organic...The environment nationwide and locally has improved because of the environmental laws passed more than 35 years ago, said Betty Munis, executive director of the Idaho Forest Products Commission, which sponsors an environmental education curriculum used in Idaho schools. People express their environmental values now by buying local and using sustainable materials. "I think the average person has been taking environmentalism out of the hands of advocates and incorporating it into their lives," Munis said.

Incorporating environmentalism into daily personal transportation decisions can pose challenges and present opportunities. In major metropolitan areas, people will use public transit if it's fast and convenient and fits into their busy lives. The trick for transit planners and decision-makers is not only financing, but systems engineering to reduce wait times and travel times. People vote with their wristwatches, and cannot be hectored out of that. The smart focus is not on attacking "car culture" - something regrettably still frequent in Seattle and some other locales - but rather, developing more market-responsive transit choices plus a portfolio of sensible strategies to boost renewable fuels and fuel efficiency.

Former CIA chief and National Commission On Energy Policy Commissioner R. James Woolsey, in testimony to a U.S. Senate committee last week, noted that the U.S. depends on oil for 97 percent of its transportation needs; and that 40 percent of carbon dioxide emissions (which hasten global warming) come from oil, particularly via transportation uses. Woolsey also stated that the U.S. now borrows more than $300 billion per year to import oil, weakening the dollar and helping to raise interest rates; while two-thirds of proven oil reserves and much of the industry's infrastructure lie in the politically volatile Persian Gulf.

In his testimony, Woolsey recommends government foster continued private-sector development of a range of "transformative" vehicle technologies through a $3 billion, five- to ten-year tax incentive for manufacturers and consumers. The aim would be "to encourage the domestic production and purchase of of plug-in hybrid, hybrid-electric and advanced diesel vehicles that achieve superior fuel economy." Woolsey details how high density, high power battery fueled plug-in hybrid electric vehicles can actually supply additional power to the electric grid after charging up in off-peak hours - with cost credits to consumers, and cheaper and cleaner electricity generation for utilities. Production model PHEVs are now an estimated two to three years away from appearing in showrooms, Woolsey estimates.

He also urges Congress to set a four percent annual Corporate Annual Fuel Economy (CAFE) target; and stresses that lighter-weight carbon fiber composites used in aerospace and race cars can be applied to commercial passenger vehicles; reducing weight, while increasing fuel efficiency and safety. Liquid fuels will still be essential, especially for use in longer-range trips, but alternatives to oil can and should be developed from among an array of options, including cellulosic as opposed to corn-based ethanol; cellulosic methanol; and renewable diesel from crops, and industrial, municipal and animal wastes.

Woolsey adds that Congress should ensure that "every car sold in the U.S....enable fuel flexibility, a feature which adds less than $100 to the manufacturing cost...and provides a platform upon which fuels can compete."

A diverse coalition of interests supports weaning our nation off foreign oil. Woolsey affectionately identifies the players as "the tree huggers, the do-gooders, the sod busters, the Mom and Pop car owners, the cheap hawks, the venture capitalists, the utility shareholders, the evangelicals, and Willie Nelson."

Willie Nelson has other plans that day, but with our co-sponsors we'll be hosting a pretty diverse group ourselves, at our May 7 "Jump Start to A Secure, Clean Energy Future" conference in Redmond, WA. More information, including online registration and the agenda, here.

TECHNORATI TAGS: IDAHO, ENVIRONMENTALISM, OIL, RENEWABLE FUELS, SEATTLE, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES

"Saving The Earth Sensibly" With A Carbon Tax

Matt Rosenberg

In "Go Green? Go West," Los Angeles Times opinion columnist Ronald Brownstein writes that the Western U.S. is poised to lead on alternative energy. The "sagebrush rebellion" resource extraction push of decades past has given way to "a renewable revolution" bearing both real promise and all the expected consumer cost caveats, Brownstein posits.

Across the West, governors from both parties are advancing the nation's most ambitious policies to promote clean energy, encourage conservation and reduce emissions of greenhouse gases...leaders in the West are...drawing support from ideologically diverse local coalitions that include new residents concerned about preserving an attractive environment and agricultural and tourism interests fearful that global warming may undermine their industries. Even major utilities across the West have enlisted.

...The West's new energy axis rests on a deepening partnership between...Democratic governors and California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, a centrist Republican....last fall....Schwarzenegger signed a law barring state utilities from entering long-term contracts to import electricity from power plants that emit more carbon dioxide than the cleanest natural gas facilities — a standard that excludes conventional coal-fired plants. That decision already is sending ripples through the region as governors from energy-exporting states use it to build support for cleaner alternatives to conventional coal.

...Six of the 11 states...have approved "renewable portfolio standards" that require utilities to generate a fixed percentage of electricity from renewable power sources such as wind, solar and geothermal; Oregon is on track to join them this year......In February, Schwarzenegger and the Democratic governors of Arizona, New Mexico, Washington and Oregon agreed to devise a regional plan for mandatory reductions in greenhouse gas emissions, most likely through a cap-and-trade system....The participating states have agreed to devise a market-based regulation system by fall 2008, and sources involved in the design say they hope to entice into the plan not only other Western states but the Canadian province of British Columbia.

Washington voters last November approved I-937, requiring large utilities to get 15 percent of their electricity from new renewable sources such as solar and wind by 2020, and undertake cost-effective energy conservation. The measure excluded hydropower as a renewable, and had its critics, who argued government mandates aren't how to develop cleaner and more secure energy sources.

The Oregonian reports today that Washington ranks fifth nationwide and Oregon eighth in installed megawatts of wind power, according to 2006 year-end rankings by the American Wind Energy Association. The article also highlights several new wind power projects in Oregon, and gives a sense of some of the big business interests involved in the wind power industry, along with mid-sized and utility players.

Several large projects are under construction, including Portland-based PPM Energy's 221-megawatt Klondike III and Portland General Electric's 125-megawatt Biglow Canyon, both in Sherman County. Also, Horizon Wind Energy, which Portuguese power provider Energias de Portugal recently agreed to buy from Goldman Sachs for $2.15 billion, has a 101-megawatt project in the works in Union County. The state's newest player is Massachusetts-based UPC Wind, which has 35 wind projects under development in North America. UPC Wind on Wednesday applied with the state to build an $80 million, 60-megawatt wind farm about five miles west of The Dalles in Wasco County. The Cascade Wind Project would involve 40 turbines stretching six miles along an exposed ridgeline.

In Washington state the Energy Facilities Siting Council recently okayed Horizon's Kittitas Valley Wind Power Project; final approval by the governor is still required. The editorial board of the Tacoma New Tribune lauds the council's decision.

The current contribution of wind power to the nation's energy mix is relatively scant and its economics are far from proven. One consideration: The wind lobby says long-term extension of the renewable energy production tax credit is essential for the industry. In a column titled "Saving The Earth Sensibly," the Chicago Tribune's incisive opinionator Steve Chapman favors a carbon tax rather than special dispensations for renewables.

Reducing the output of carbon dioxide and other substances that trap the Earth's heat is not cheap. But there are expensive solutions, and there are astronomical ones. Any new policy should aim at getting the greatest reductions for the least money....The free market is the best system ever created for providing what we want at the lowest possible cost....we...need to make energy prices reflect the potential harm done by greenhouse gases...with a carbon tax that assesses fuels according to how much they pollute. Coal, having the highest carbon content, would be taxed the most, followed by oil and natural gas. The higher prices for the most damaging fuels would encourage people and companies to use them less and more of other types of energy, including nuclear, solar, wind and biofuels.

....Government programs to reduce greenhouse gases are a recipe for waste and abuse. Federal "investment" in alternative fuels? That idea got a full tryout during the energy crisis of the 1970s, with meager results. Tax breaks for ethanol? Largely self-defeating, because they encourage farmers to burn fossil fuels to expand production of corn.

Corn-based ethanol does not pencil out, as The Economist argues in an editorial reprinted in the Seattle Post-Intelliegencer. Better alternatives are ethanol from Brazilian sugar cane, and cellulosic ethanol dervided from wood, grasses, shrubs and agricultural detritus.

These sorts of distinctions are important as the push for cleaner energy intensifies. A new reckoning of nuclear power seems likely in time, too. While part of the mix in the U.S. and Europe, it still faces great mistrust from the public. The APEC Energy Overview 2006 notes (p. 157) that in 2004, 41 percent of our nation's energy came from crude oil and petroleum products; 23 percent from coal; 22 percent from natural gas; and 14 percent from nuclear, hydro, geothermal and other fuels.

The APEC report (p. 163) also reminds that the U.S. Energy Policy Act Of 2005 outlines a long-term strategy for a diversified energy supply, modernization of the nation's energy infrastructure, increased energy efficiency and conservation and better vehicle fuel efficiency. Our Cascadia Center For Regional Development and special guests will highlight conservation and fuel efficiency in the "May 7 Jump Start To A Secure, Clean Energy Future" symposium on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, at the Microsoft Conference Center in Redmond, WA.

One objective in the '05 energy legislation, as the APEC document notes, is "creating an adequate Liquified Natural Gas infrastructure: streamlining the regulatory review process is underway to expedite the siting on new LNG import terminals." In California, the first of five expected proposals for liquified natural gas terminals is provoking a controversy that will put Gov. Schwarzenegger front and center next month. Recent articles from the San Francisco Chronicle and The Los Angeles Times detail the saga of the proposed Cabrillo Port liquified natural gas plant off the Ventura County coast between Malibu and Port Hueneme.

The State Lands Commision has voted not to accept an environmental impact study on the project, and that the State Coastal Commission - which votes on the project today - is reportedly also opposed. However, Gov. Schwarzenegger, who has until May 21 to decide, could still approve the project, with or without some amendments to the plan.

TECHNORATI TAGS: ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, WESTERN UNITED STATES, GREENHOUSE GASES, CARBON TAX, WASHINGTON STATE, WIND POWER, ETHANOL, CALIFORNIA, LIQUIFIED NATURAL GAS, ARNOLD SCHWARZENEGGER

Research Compendium

Matt Rosenberg

Last updated August 25, 2008

The research, it just keeps coming. On this page, we'll compile links to key studies and reports on innovation in transportation.

MANAGING, PLANNING & FUNDING TRANSPORTATION

Cascadia Center Reports

"Lessons In Public-Private Partnerships & Climate Change: What British Columbia Taught California, And What Washington Can Still Learn," 10/07.

"A Tale Of Three Cities: How San Diego, Denver and Vancouver, B.C. Raised Major Regional Funds For Transportation," Doug Hurley, Cascadia Center For Regional Development, 9/06.

"Travel Value Pricing: Better Traffic Operations Management & New Revenue For The Puget Sound Region," John S. Niles, for Cascadia Center, 4/06.

"Transportation Working Group Recommendations," Transportation Working Group, Cascadia Center For Regional Development, 2/15/05.

Transportation Working Group background, members, and resource book.

"An Institutional Conundrum - A Simplified Overview Of Metropolitan Institutional Reform Applied To Transportation In The Puget Sound Region," Deb Eddy, Cascadia Center For Regional Development, 2004.

"How Do We Get There From Here? A Transportation Future For The Puget Sound Region," Bruce Agnew & Bruce Chapman, Cascadia Center For Regional Development, 2003. View the video, as aired on Seattle Channel, 5/20/05.

Other Reports

"Just Pricing: The Distributional Effects Of Congestion Pricing and Sales Taxes," Brian Taylor, UCLA Institute Of Transportation Studies; Lisa Schweitzer, School Of Policy, Planning And Development, University Of Southern California, 5/08

"Transportation For Tomorrow," National Surface Transportation Policy & Revenue Study Commission, 1/08.

"Running On Empty - 2007 Annual Report," Washington Transportation Commission, 12/07.

"Building New Roads Through Public-Private Partnerships: Frequently Asked Questions," Leonard C. Gilroy, Robert W. Poole, Jr., Peter Samuel, Geoffrey Segal, Reason Foundation, 11/07.

"Review Of Congressional Earmarks Within Department Of Transportation Programs," Office Of The Inspector General, U.S. DOT, 9/7/07.

"Case Studies Of Transportation Public-Private Partnerships In The United States," Aecom Consult Team, for U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration, 7/7/07.

"Case Studies Of Transportation Public-Private Partnerships Around The World," Aecom Consult Team, for U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration, 7/7/07.

Draft Vision 2040 Puget Sound Regional Council, 7/07.

"Lake Washington Urban Partnership," Washington State Department of Transportation, 4/30/07.

"Report On SR 520 Bridge Replacement And HOV Project Funding Alternatives," Seattle-Northwest Securities Corporation, Montague DeRose & Associates, LLC, 3/28/07.

"Destination 2030 - Taking An Alternative Route," Washington State Transportation Center/Booz Allen Hamilton (For King County Executive), 3/05/07.

"Overview Of National Strategy To Reduce Congestion On America's Transportation Network," USDOT, 3/07.

"Public-Private Partnerships For Toll Highways," Robert W. Poole, Reason Foundation, Testimony To U.S. House Committee On Transportation & Infrastructure, Subcommittee On Highways & Transit, 2/13/07.

"Report On The Transportation Innnovative Partnerships Program," Washington Transportation Commission, 1/07.

"Regional Transportation Commission Final Report," Regional Transportation Commission (of Puget Sound), 12/31/06.

"Washington Transportation Plan 2007-2026," Washington Transportation Commission, 11/06.

"Reducing Congestion In Atlanta: A Bold New Approach To Mobility," Robert W. Poole, Reason Foundation, 11/06.

"Public-Private Partnerships & The Development Of Transport Infrastructure: Trends On Both Sides Of The Atlantic," Benjamin G. Perez, PB Consult Inc., James W. March, Federal Highway Administration; 9/06.

"Transportation Finance At The Ballot Box: Voters Support Increased Investment & Choice," Center For Transportation Excellence, 8/06.

"Building Roads To Reduce Congestion In America's Cities: How Much & At What Cost?," David Hartgren, M. Gregory Fields & Robert W. Poole, Reason Foundation, 8/06; (WA state congestion analysis, from study).

"Why Mobility Matters," Ted Balaker, Reason Foundation, 8/06.

"Current Toll Road Activity In The U.S.: A Survey & Analysis," Benjamin Pereze, Steve Lockwood, for U.S. DOT, Federal Highway Administration, 8/06.

"Remarks Of Pat Jacobsen - CEO, Greater Vancouver Transportation Authority - To House & Senate Transportation Committees of Washington State Legislature, 1/19/06.

"Traffic Congestion & Reliability: Trends & Advanced Strategies For Congestion Mitigation," Cambridge Systematics & Texas Transportation Institute (for Federal Highway Administration), 9/1/05.

"2005 Urban Mobility Report," Texas Transportation Institute, 2005.

"Unclogging America's Highways - Effective Relief For Highway Bottlenecks," American Highway Users Alliance, 2/04

HUBS, CORRIDORS & GATEWAYS

" Canada: A Macroeconomic Study of the United States' Most Important Trade Partner,"U.S. Department of Agriculture Economic Research Service, Updated 9/15/06

Canadian Embassy State Trade Fact Sheet 2006, Canadian Embassy, 2006.

Canada/U.S. Regional Economies, Canadian-American Border Trade Alliance.

"Western Hemisphere Travel Initiative: The Basics," U.S. Department of Homeland Security.

Resolution Of The West Coast Corridor Coalition, 11/03.

"From B.C. To B.C. - And Beyond - the Story Of The West Coast Corridor Coalition."

"Spatial Concepts & Cross Border Governance Strategies," Susan E. Clarke, University of Colorado, (presented to EURA Conference On Urban & Spatial Policies), 4/02.

"The Character of Non-Governmental Transborder Organizations In The Cascadia Region of North America," Lawrence Douglas Taylor Hansen, Revista Mexicana De Estudios Canadienses, 2/02.

SURFACE & MARINE TRANSPORTATION

Cascadia Center Reports

"Testimony In Support Of King County Passenger-Only Ferry District," Matt Rosenberg, 11/13/07.

"Alaskan Way Replacement: Alternative Approaches," Ove Arup & Partners, for Cascadia Center, 11/06.

"A New Vision For Developing Transit For Livable Cities." Enrique Penalosa, former
mayor of Bogota, Columbia speaks at a Cascadia Center co-sponsored event on implementation of Bogota's TransMileno Bus Rapid Transit system. Seattle Channel video, 9/27/06.

"Statement of Tom Till to Washington Transportation Commission On Amtrak & Related Issues, Including Availability of Federal Funding," 1/18/06.

Other Reports

"King County Passenger-Only Ferries Project Briefing Paper," IBI Group, for King County Executive, 11/7/07.

Puget Sound Regional Council Passenger-Only Ferry Study, 2007 (ongoing).

Chapter 7, "I-405 Plan: Transit and HOV", in "I-405 Congestion Relief & Bus Rapid Transit Projects - Final Recommendations Report," WSDOT. (See "I-405 BRT Service").

BNSF Corridor Preservation Study, Puget Sound Regional Council, 2/27/07.

Statewide Rail Capacity and System Needs Study, Washington State Transportation Commission, 12/06.

Columbia River Crossing Project Alternatives Page.

Willamette River Ferry Feasibility Study, City Of Portland Department of Transportation, 2006.

Waterborne Transit Policy Study, King County Department of Transportation, August, 2005.

Rich Passage Passenger-Only Ferry Study, Phase I, WSDOT, Federal Transit Administration, 4/05.

"Report Card For America's Infrastructure," American Society Of Civil Engineers, 2005.

TECHNOLOGY & ENERGY

Cascadia Center Reports

Speaker Presentations At Cascadia/Microsoft/Idaho National Laboratory "Beyond Oil: Transforming Transportation" conference, 9/4/08 and 9/5/08, Redmond, Wash. (Topics included electric vehicles, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, renewable energy, traffic management systems and technology, transit. Many of these files are very large and may take several minutes to open/download depending on your internet connection).

9/4/08 Presentations:

Sharon Banks
Scott Belcher
Charlie Botsford
John Clark
June Devoll
Rob Elam
Dick Ford
Jim Francfort
Andy Frank
Arti Gupta
Jerry Hautamaki
Craig Helmann
John Horsley
Cornie Huizenga
Ron Johnston-Rodriguez
Preet Khalsa
Dave Kristick
Felix Kramer
Justin McNew
Paul Minett
Brian Mistele
Tim Murphy
Jack Opiola
Syd Pawlowski
Dick Paylor
Ron Posthuma
Matt Sheldon
Jim Stanton
Ed Stern
Julian Taylor
Michael Weick

9/5/08 Presentations:

Kevin Banister
Rob Bernard
Don Foley
Paul Genoa
KC Golden
Paula Hammond
David Kaplan
Rich Laukhart
Jim Piro
Bill Rogers
Jim Walker
Brian Wynn

"Greening The Highway From Baja To B.C. - A Discussion Brief," Matt Rosenberg, 9/19/07.

"Replacing Oil With Electricity And Biofuels In Transportation: The Convergence Of Technology And Public Policy," Steve Marshall, 8/7/07.

Speaker Presentations at Cascadia-Microsoft "Jump Start To A Secure Clean Energy Future" Conference on Plug-in Hybrid Electric Vehicles and Alternative Fuels, 5/7/07

Roger Duncan, Austin Energy/Plug-In Partners (4.78 MB)
Mark Duvall, Electric Power Research Institute (1.13 MB)
Andrew A. Frank, University of California/Davis (1.33 MB)
K.C. Golden, Climate Solutions (1.81 MB)
David Horner, U.S. Dept. of Transportation (700 KB)
Michael Kintner-Meyer, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (1.91 MB)
Felix Kramer, CalCars.org (708 KB)
John M. Miller, Maxwell Technologies (496 KB)
Philip Mote, University of Washington (3.88 MB)
Tim Murphy, Idaho National Laboratory (674 KB)
Vic Parrish, Energy Northwest (494 KB)
Bill Reinert, Toyota USA (2.00 MB)
Bill Rogers, Idaho National Laboratory (1.05 MB)
Greg Rock, Green Car Company (82.9 KB)
Neil Schuster, Intelligent Transportation Society Of America (2.14 MB)
Rogelio Sullivan, U.S. Dept. of Energy (1.08 MB)
John Wellinghoff, Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (4.23 MB)
Nick Zielinski, General Motors/Chevy Volt (1.79 MB)

Other Reports

"Basic Research Needs: Catalysis For Energy," (report from U.S. Dept. Of Energy Basic Energy Sciences Workshop), 8/07.

"Environmental Assessment of Plug-In Hybrid Electric Vehicles," Electric Power Research Institute, Natural Resources Defense Council, 7/07.

" Joint Science Academies Statement on Growth and Responsibility; Sustainability, Energy Efficiency and Climate Protection, for G8 Summit, 5/07.

"Fourth Assessment Report of Intergovernmental Panel On Climate Change," United Nations, 4/07/07.

Annual Energy Outlook 2007 - With Projections To 2030," U.S. Department of Energy, Energy Information Administration, 2/07.

Impacts Assessment of Plug-in Hybrid Vehicles On Electric Utilities and Regional U.S. Power Grids; Michael Kintner-Meyer, Kevin Schneider, Robert Pratt; Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, 12/06.

"Alternative Fuels Study: A Report To Congress On Policy Options For Increasing The Use Of Alternative Fuels In Transit Vehicles," Federal Transit Administration, U.S. Dept. of Transportation, 12/06.

"Intelligent Transportation Systems Regional Architecture", Puget Sound Regional Council, IBI Group, 8/21/06.

"Future Visions," Washington Transportation Plan Update Process, WSDOT/Washington Transportation Commission, 6/17/05. (See pp. 27-34, "Intelligent Transportation Systems").

GridWise Program Overview, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Technological Basis For GridWise, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory.

Primer On Vehicle-Infrastructure Integration, Intelligent Transportation Society Of America.

TECHNORATI TAGS: TRANSPORTATION, RESEARCH, TRANSPORTATION GOVERNANCE, TRAFFIC CONGESTION, TRANSIT, BUS RAPID TRANSIT, PASSENGER-ONLY FERRIES, TOLLS, PUBLIC PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS, SEATTLE, PUGET SOUND, CASCADIA, WEST COAST CORRIDOR, FRIEGHT, INTELLIGENT TRANSPORTATION SYSTEMS, ALTERNATIVE ENERGY, ALTERNATIVE FUELS, PLUG-IN HYBRID ELECTRIC VEHICLES