The Asianist

Peter Brookes at Heritages writes about the Russian-Chinese joint military exercise:

This week will see an ominous precedent: The first- ever joint Chinese-Russian military exercises kick off Thursday in Northeast Asia.

The exercises are small in scale — but huge in implication. They indicate a further warming of the "strategic partnership" that Moscow and Beijing struck back in 1996.

More importantly, they signal the first real post-Cold War steps, beyond inflammatory rhetoric, by Russia and China to balance — and, ultimately, diminish — U.S. power across Asia. If America doesn't take strategic steps to counter these efforts, it will lose influence to Russia and China in an increasingly important part of the world.

Unimaginable just a few years ago, the weeklong military exercises — dubbed "Peace Mission 2005" — will involve 10,000 troops on China and Russia's eastern coasts and in adjacent seas.

The title notwithstanding, the purpose of the exercise is clear:

For instance, although Russia nixed the idea, the Chinese demanded the exercises be held 500 miles to the south — a move plainly aimed at intimidating Taiwan.

Beijing clearly wanted to send a warning to Washington (and, perhaps, Tokyo) about its support for Taipei, and hint at the possibility that if there were a Taiwan Strait dust-up, Russia might stand with China.

The exercise also gives Russia an opportunity to strut its military wares before its best customers — Chinese generals. Moscow is Beijing's largest arms supplier, to the tune of more than $2 billion a year for purchases that include subs, ships, missiles and fighters.

Rumors abound that Moscow may finally be ready to sell strategic, cruise-missile-capable bombers such as the long-range TU-95 and supersonic TU-22 to Beijing — strengthening China's military hand against America and U.S. friends and allies in Asia.

Russia and China are working together to oppose American influence all around their periphery. Both are upset by U.S. support for freedom in the region — notably in the recent Orange (Ukraine), Rose (Georgia) and Tulip (Kyrgyzstan) revolutions — all of which fell in what Moscow or Beijing deems its sphere of influence.

The Marmot's Hole has more coverage of the development, and reports yet another motive:

Japan’s Nihon Keizai reported that some in Japan’s defense establishment believe the exercise to be practice for a possible intervention in North Korea, or more specifically, to determine whether in the wake of a North Korean collapse, Sino-Russian forces can get to the DMZ faster than ROK-U.S. forces can get to the Yalu. I’m not sure if that’s actually the case, as the LAT reported that Russia originally wanted to carry out the exercise in Central Asia and China near Taiwan, with Shandong being the resulting compromise. Still, the Japanese suspicions are at least interesting to think about.

China has been racking up a lot of joint military exercises lately, the last one being the exercise held with the French Navy in 2004. In realpolitk terms, these are classic balancing behaviors toward the hegemonic power -- in a way, they confirm the fact that the United States is the sole superpower in the world, despite much handwringing about "quagmires" in Iraq and Afghanistan. The Great Powers politics go on, an unconventional war or no.