The Asianist

Todd Crowell at Asia Cable has a good review of the latest electoral gambit from Japanese Prime Minister Koizumi:

The political pressure on some of Japan’s legislators to pass the postal privatization bill was so great that one legislator actually committed suicide. Now many believe that Prime Minister Junichiro Koizumi is committing the equivalent of political hara kiri by dissolving parliament and calling for new elections next month.

Koizumi made good on his threat to call a special general election after the House of Councilors, Japan’s equivalent of the Senate, defeated his bills to privatize Japan’s post office, including its banking and insurance branches which contain assets equal to about $3 trillion (that’s with a “T”).

Though Crowell can't refrain from taking a gratuitous cheap shot at President Bush, his analysis of the election's relevance is sound:

One thing that gives Koizumi some hope is his approval ratings going into the election. The last poll gave his cabinet a 47.3 percent stamp of approval. For Americans that may seem low, but in Japan it is, in fact, a very high rating. Several LDP premiers have had approval ratings that fell into single digits.

Though almost ignored in the U.S., the election could have serious foreign policy consequences. If Katsuya Okada, leader of the Japan Democratic Party, forms a government, he very likely would end the visits to the Yasukuni Shrine that irritate China and Korea. Indeed, there is evidence that the public at large is nervous about Koizumi’s annual visits, so it might be a good issue to run on.

He would likely withdraw Japanese soldiers from Iraq. Unfortunately for Koizumi, Samawah, where the Japanese are stationed, is in turmoil. One dead soldier might turn the entire election around. A new government would probably drop any plans to amend the country’s peace constitution and may not be as eager as Koizumi to move Japan militarily closer to the U.S., especially in helping come to the defense of Taiwan.

Mind you, whether or not the proposed measure is popular, Koizumi is on the right side of economics:

Then there is the issue of postal privatization itself. This is really the subject of an article by itself. It’s safe to say that any tinkering with a pot of wealth roughly equal to a third of the entire gross domestic product of the United States cannot help but have enormous implications for Japan and the rest of the world.

I’ll simply quote a key passage from a study by Jetro [Japan External Trade Organization]: “If the Japanese public . . . begins to invest their postal savings in private banks and other investment vehicles, the country’s economy will never be the same. Huge amounts of pent-up household capital would be moved into private financial markets. This would help to bolster not only Japan’s incipient economic recovery but, over time, financial markets around the world.”

And that, really, is the similarity between Koizumi and Bush -- as with President Bush's proposed Social Security reform, Prime Minister Koizumi is pushing something that is economically sound. Whether the measure would garner electoral support is clearly in doubt, however.