By: Emory Thomas, Jr.
Puget Sound Business Journal
August 1, 2008
For whom the road tolls: Seattle or Bellevue?
Puget Sound Business Journal (Seattle) - by Emory Thomas Jr. Publisher
New Mexico has long been known as the Land of Enchantment. Washington is fast becoming the Land of Unintended Consequences.
Its largest city, Seattle, will now tax grocery bags, ostensibly to save the environment — and yet one of the most likely consequences may be a sharp spike in consumer purchase of more durable plastic bags … that are not recyclable.
Some of the region’s most visible promoters of cycling — the Critical Mass group that sparked a scary fight in Seattle’s Capitol Hill area by temporarily blocking auto traffic without a parade permit — appear to be damaging their cause.
And the latest iteration of the state’s transportation policy — a road tolling plan ultimately intended to more tightly link Seattle with the Eastside — may well draw a sharper divide than ever between the two, sending the Puget Sound region into a period of accelerated divergence between Seattle and Bellevue, in particular.
This last notion is one of the conclusions that jumps out from the data recently compiled by the 520 Tolling Implementation Committee. Created by the state Legislature, and charged with evaluating the various tolling options to pay for rebuilding the crumbling State Route 520 bridge over Lake Washington, the committee has scoped out multiple scenarios.
We could, for instance, toll only 520. Or we could toll the Interstate 90 bridge, too. We could start tolling really soon (2010). Or we could wait until the new 520 is in place (2016). Variable pricing is assumed, with premiums charged at rush hour ($3.05 per crossing in one scenario) and discounts offered late at night (perhaps 90 cents per crossing).
The projected effects are intriguing:
– Tolling only one bridge would, naturally, send more autos to the other bridge, thus slowing traffic there — down to 28 miles per hour on average on I-90 during one afternoon commute, according to the committee’s prediction grid.
– In all scenarios, more people would choose HOV and transit options, but the shift would involve only an estimated 2 percent or 3 percent of travelers.
– Some drivers would choose a different route; State Route 522 would get a small bump in congestion.
– Most intriguing of all: Big numbers of people would choose a new destination altogether — especially if both bridges are tolled. As many as 22.3 percent of drivers actually would decide not to cross the lake for whatever purpose they had contemplated.
This last projection (which may get revised downward a bit) is the most stunning, and potentially has the most impact. The implication is that Eastside residents, due to new tolls, would jettison that longtime dentist in Seattle in favor of a new one in Kirkland. And a Seattleite who normally shops for clothes at Bellevue Square may choose Northgate instead. A debate is just beginning on which business community benefits more from this dynamic: Seattle or the Eastside. But the betting here (and across the Eastside) is that the fast-maturing Bellevue and its brethren would gain the most.
For years, Eastside business leaders have discussed the notion of “leakage” — referring to the loss of revenue from Eastside residents who choose to drive into Seattle for their entertainment or services. Now, in every prospective tolling scenario, these same leaders see an opportunity to stem the leakage.
Key policy questions loom. To toll or not to toll? (The vote here: yes — not only is it inevitable … it’s sensible.) Toll one bridge or two? (Two would better balance the cross-lake consequences.) Toll early or wait for the new road? (Earlier tolls mean lower per-trip charges.) Raise just enough money for construction, or build in some cushion for maintenance and such?
This last question is easy to answer. No more than a normal contingency, please. Build a cushion, and we’ll suddenly be hearing about how the extra funds should be spent on plastic-bag and bicycling initiatives. And there’s no telling how that would play out in the Land of Unintended Consequences.
EMORY THOMAS JR. is publisher of the Puget Sound Business Journal. Reach him at ethomas@bizjournals.com.
